All Winter Leagues: Package Deals



Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables
Valid for the 2023-24 season

FT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 6.5 Goals
HT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 2.5 Goals

Bookmakers aren’t in the business of taking risks – they operate on a structured methodology. Mirror their strategy, outsmart them on their turf.

Our Cluster Tables empower you to analyse goal frequencies, calculate probabilities, and unravel hidden patterns. This potent tool enables you to compute Zero Odds, delineate fair odds ranges, and compare them with market odds, placing you in the driver’s seat. Don’t merely participate – seize control with a tool crafted for precision and triumph.

Package Deals Coupon Codes
Mix & Match for a minimum of £100: CT15 (15% Discount)
Bundle for a minimum of £150: CT20 (20% Discount)
Bundle for a minimum of £250: CT30 (30% Discount)

These coupons require a minimum spend and can be used even if the items are on sale. However, please note that it cannot be used in conjunction with any other coupons.

Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.

Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.

Like a sculptor, a bettor must chisel away uncertainty with the tools of statistics and probabilities to reveal their masterpiece.

Graph of Goal Distribution - Austria Bundesliga - 2017-18 to 2021-22


Covid-19 or Not

The Austrian Bundesliga (12 teams) follows a double round-robin format, meaning that each team plays against every other team twice. The league also features a playoff phase, known as the Meistergruppe and Qualifikationsgruppe, where the top six and bottom six teams respectively play against each other twice, leading to a total of 192 matches per season.

The format was slightly changed in the 2018-19 season, leading to an increase from 180 matches in the previous season and had a slight effect on the statistical pattern as you can see from the graph. However, the Covid-19 pandemic did not effect on the number of goals scored.


New Format, Same Goals

In 2019-20, the Danish Superliga reduced the number of teams from 14 to 12, playing a total of 192 matches (before: 236).

Each team now plays 32 games per season, starting with 22 matches against every side. In spring, the league splits into a championship playoff and a qualifying playoff, with teams in the top and bottom six playing each other twice more.

Neither the Covid-9 nor the change of the league format affected the number of average goals. There were 2.87 in 2017-18, 2.79 in 2018-19, 2.78 in 2019-20, 2.89 in 2020-21 and 2.66 in 2021-22.

Graph of Goal Distribution - Denmark Superligaen - 2017-18 to 2021-22
Profit Loss simulation: Inflection Graphs O&U 2.5 goals - EPL - 2017-22; the curves going in opposite directions
To be found in the ‘OU 2.5 Goals IP’s’ tab in the EPL Cluster Tables


O/U 2.5 Goal Odds Exposed

Backing all over 2.5 goal bets in EPL in the past five years would have resulted in a considerable loss of approximately 6000 units. However, betting on the under 2.5 goals would have yielded a profit.

The reason behind it is that the average goal count in the EPL is around 2.7/2.8, leading the public favour Over bets and allowing the bookmakers to adjust their odds (prices) accordingly.

Although betting on all Under 2.5 goals would have yielded a profit of around 2000 units, it would not cover the loss from the Over bets. Why? There is always a bookmakers’ profit margin or “overround”.

This graph is a fascinating insight into how bookmakers operate and maximise their profits. It also highlights the importance of understanding odds for any sports bettor.


A Statistical Battle

The goal patterns in the German Bundesliga were distorted by Covid, resulting in a 15% deviation during the 2019-20 season.

However, the current 2022-23 season reflects pre-pandemic norms with home goals accounting for 58.73% and away goals 41.27% of the total goals scored.

Similarly, the 2018-19 season had percentages of 56.54% and 43.46%, respectively.

The Bundesliga’s statistical correctness is back, showcasing its resilience and fast recovery.

Graph of Goal Distribution - German BL - 2017-18 to 2021-22
Data in the ‘Goal Distributions’ tab in the Cluster Tables
Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Under - Italy Serie A - Napoli vs Milan 2023.04.02 Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Over - Italy Serie A - Napoli vs Milan 2023.04.02


Trust & Verify

In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.

This match featured two Value Bets fitting our criteria: Over 1.5 goals at 1.38 odds and Over 2.5 at 2.21 odds, both above the expected fair odds range.

Italy’s Serie A scoring is unpredictable, making it difficult for bookmakers to set odds, as demonstrated by the simulation of Over/Under 2.5 goals profit/losses. With an HO/AO quotient of 0.4822, these bets were within the rising profit curves, so we considered them wise choices.

Both bets won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised if they had lost, considering that the probabilities of winning were high but certainly not 100%.


The Possession-Goal Paradox

The Primeira Liga in Portugal is synonymous with possession-based football, leading to impressive offensive stats.

However, goal-scoring gradually declined from 2.70 to 2.42 since 2017-18, with a further drop during the Covid-19 season.

The 2021-22 season saw a resurgence, with a home goals average remaining consistent and unpredictable away goals. Over 2.5 goals increased, suggesting a continuation of strategic passes and movement, but under 2.5 goals are rising again in the current 2022-23 season.

The league continues to evolve, and while strategy dominates, unpredictable away goals provide fans with thrilling football matches.

Graph of Goal Distribution - Portugal Primeira - 2017-18 to 2021-22
Graph: Russia, Zenit Petersburg - Zero Odds Over X goals, home & away 2017-18 to 2021-22 Graph: Russia, Zenit Petersburg - Distribution Over X goals, home & away 2017-18 to 2021-22


Same but Dual

As any football fan knows, home field advantage often makes a big difference in a team’s performance. Zenit Petersburg is no exception, with a significant difference in their goal counts when playing at home versus away.

For example, they have a 73.33% Over 2.5 goal record at home, compared to just 33.3% when playing away. For those interested in betting, this information is of great value. When Zenit is playing at home, a price for an Over 2.5 of around 1.36 (4/11) can be considered being ‘fair’, whilst in an away game the O 2.5 goal odds should be in the region of 3.0 (2/1).

It’s worth mentioning that this trend is not unique to Zenit; once you start looking you will realise that many teams in various leagues experience a similar gap in their goal counts when playing at home or away.


Bet with Confidence

The Margin of Error is the percentage by which results can differ from the expected value.

For instance, if the expectation of the Under 2.5 goal bet is 58.3%, the probability range would be from 55.67% to 60.93%, indicating that all odds for the U 2.5 bet between 1.64 and 1.80 would be fair.

The larger the margin of error, the less confident one should be about the expected outcome.

Though not an exact definition of error, it is an easy statistical concept to understand, and the results are accurate enough to make informed betting decisions.

The European winter leagues with low margins of error are: the Spanish La Liga, the EPL, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Portuguese Primeira, Russian Premier League, and Swiss Super League.

Graph of Margin of Error %CV- OU Goals - Spain Primeira 2017-22
Graph to be found in the ‘Goal Distributions’ tab in the Cluster Tables

Graph: Swiss Super League, Basel - Distribution Over X goals, home & away 2017-18 to 2021-22 Graph: Swiss Super League, Basel - Zero Odds Over X goals, home & away 2017-18 to 2021-22


The Hidden Advantage

The Swiss Super League and Danish league have a unique format where each team plays the other teams four times per season. This leads to more balance and is demonstrated in the graph showcasing the goal counts for Basel’s matches at home versus away.

Looking specifically at Over 2.5 goals, Basel’s home matches have a 61.9% chance of finishing with O 2.5 goals, while their away matches have a 57.8% chance. Translating this into odds, a fair price for an O 2.5 bet with Basel playing at home should be around 1.62 (8/13), while for an away match, it should be around 1.73 (8/11).

This information is essential when assessing whether the odds are fair.


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