Italy Serie A Cluster Tables


Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables
Valid for the 2023-24 season

FT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 6.5 Goals
HT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 2.5 Goals

Unlock Italy’s Serie A tactical world with our Cluster Table for Over/Under Goal betting.

The league is known for tactical play and fewer high-scoring games, providing great opportunities for savvy bettors. Witness the shift towards more attacking football, with teams adopting an expansive style. Experience low-scoring match drama and discover hidden value in Serie A’s goal statistics.

With surprises and upsets, the Serie A Cluster Table is a must-have for football betting fans. Cluster Tables are a valuable resource, empowering bettors to make strategic Over/Under goals bets with confidence and data-driven decisions.

Should you not know: >>> What is a Cluster Table? <<<

With your purchase, you will also receive the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables for the 2022-23 season, allowing you to backtest your strategies. Please note that there was a major upgrade this season, and the layout of the previous tables may appear a little outdated.

Product Specification
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Table (1900 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 1.18 MB)

  • In conjunction with the Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course
  • 12 teams with 5 seasons of data: Atalanta, Bologna, Fiorentina, Inter, Juventus, Lazio, Milan, Napoli, Roma, Sassuolo, Torino, Udinese
  • 132 games out of 380 = 34.74% of all 2023-24 games available for betting
  • Includes Inflection Points Graphs for Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Italy Serie A Calendar
Start Date: 19th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 07th January, 2024

2nd Half starts: 14th January, 2024
Finish Date: 26th May, 2024

Our Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals in the Italy Serie A market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.

Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.

When the market swings to its own rhythm, a bettor versed in statistics dances to the beat of profit.


More Goals, Less Defense

Italian football has long been known for its tactical approach, often prioritizing defensive stability over attacking creativity.

This had led to a lower-scoring league, with teams looking to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes rather than take risks in attack.

However, in recent years, there seems to be a shift towards more attacking football, teams adopting a more expansive style of play. The 2021-22 season saw an average of 2.87 goals per game, the highest in over a decade.

Graph of Goal Distribution - Italy Serie A - 2017-18 to 2021-22


Fewer Goals, More Drama

The Italian Serie A has seen a rollercoaster of goal statistics in the past five years, with the Covid-19 pandemic having a significant impact.

The 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons saw a surge in away team goals, but this year’s average of 2.51 goals per match has returned to a more typical level.

It’s worth noting that the current season (2022-23) has so far a higher percentage of games ending with under 2.5 goals compared to the 2018-19 season.

The past few years have certainly been a wild ride for Serie A. It will be interesting to see how goal statistics evolve.


Favourite Folly

During the Covid pandemic, Italy’s Serie A league experienced a goal rise, but it now seems that it is returning to being more of a low-scoring league.

The profit/loss simulation graph analyses the returns on over/under 2.5 goal bets and shows that when the home team was the clear favourite (with an HO/AO quotient under 0.8), bookmakers struggled to make a profit.

Only matches with a higher HO/AO quotient would have resulted in a guaranteed loss of 7000 units for bettors placing bets on under 2.5 goals, which would have ensured a significant profit for bookmakers.

Understanding how bookmakers set their odds is critical for bettors. Therefore, before placing your next bet, take the time to analyse the odds.

Profit/Loss Simulation: Inflection Graphs O&U 2.5 goals - Italy Serie A - Season 2017-18 to 2021-22
Graph to be found in the ‘OU 2.5 Goals IP’s’ tab in the Cluster Tables

Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Over - Italy Serie A - Napoli vs Milan 2023.04.02 Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Under - Italy Serie A - Napoli vs Milan 2023.04.02
Click on the image above to toggle manually between Over and Under calculations


Trust & Verify

In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.

This match featured two Value Bets fitting our criteria: Over 1.5 goals at 1.38 odds and Over 2.5 at 2.21 odds, both above the expected fair odds range.

Italy’s Serie A scoring is unpredictable, making it difficult for bookmakers to set odds, as demonstrated by the simulation of Over/Under 2.5 goals profit/losses. With an HO/AO quotient of 0.4822, these bets were within the rising profit curves, so we considered them wise choices.

Both bets won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised if they had lost, considering that the probabilities of winning were high but certainly not 100%.


Bet to Win

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Utilise our innovative Cluster Tables to accurately calculate fair odds, identify value opportunities in the Over/Under goal market, and enhance your betting strategies.

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