HDAFU 1x2 P/L Simulations Tables

What are HDAFU (Home Draw Away Favourite Underdog) Tables?

HDAFU Tables are sophisticated analytical tools designed especially for the 1X2 betting market. As the acronym indicates, they represent Home, Draw, Away, Favourite, and Underdog.

Central to their design, the HDAFU Tables simulate the P/L that would have been realised over the last five seasons if one had consistently backed a particular result (HDAFU) using a flat stake.

The curves, distinct for each league, can be highly revealing.

For example, if supporters of a certain league mainly back home wins, bookmakers might alter these odds in response, resulting in a descending curve (signifying losses). Such tendencies might be evident across all home odds or start appearing from specific odds, influenced by the specific betting demand of certain odds ranges.

The counteraction to this manipulation (adjusting home win odds in this example) is the tweaking of odds for the other outcomes (in this case, Draw and/or Away win odds), ensuring a 100% probability remains intact.

Such manipulative adjustments are evident in the P/L curves, providing the astute bettor with crucial insights into the odds market, enabling them to make well-informed decisions and craft systems.

What are Inflection Point Curves?

Inflection Point Curves are graphical illustrations that spotlight significant shifts or turning points within a dataset. In the context of HDAFU Tables, these curves capture the junctures where profits transition to losses and vice versa.

Picture a graph mapping the profit/loss line for home wins across different odds over five seasons.

Initially, with the more conservative odds, the curve might, for example, remain close to the zero-mark (especially if, in that particular league, supporters don’t particularly favour low-odds bets on the home team). Yet, as the odds extend, a noticeable ascent or descent might emerge at a particular odds’ point where the profit curve alters its course.

This crossroad, where the curve’s direction toggles, is known as the inflection point. In the betting landscape, it pinpoints the exact odds where a betting strategy shifts from being lucrative to becoming a liability, or the other way around.

What is the Use of Inflection Point Curves for Picking a System?

Inflection Point Curves are instrumental when devising a solid betting system. By allowing bettors to visualise the profitability threshold of a betting strategy, they provide invaluable insights for decision-making.

These curves enable the identification of “sweet spots” – specific odds ranges where historically, a strategy would have yielded success.

For example, if the curve demonstrates that betting on home wins turns unprofitable when the odds exceed 2.5, a bettor could potentially craft a lay strategy for such scenarios for the future. On the other hand, if the curve indicates consistent gains when backing underdogs with odds ranging between 3.0 and 4.0, it signifies a lucrative zone for further exploration.

In summary, Inflection Point Curves provide invaluable clarity, equipping bettors to refine their strategy and optimise potential gains.