Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.
In the ever-shifting landscape of betting, statistics serve as our unwavering compass, guiding us through the unknown.
FROM DEFENSE TO ATTACK
Shifting Patterns
It seems that the Russian Premier League is currently experiencing a shift in statistical patterns.
Historically known for low-scoring matches, the league has seen an increase in goal-scoring with an average of 2.66 goals per game in 2021-22 and 3.09 goals per game in 2022-23.
Additionally, there has been a higher percentage of matches with over 2.5 goals, with 51% in 2021-22 and 62% in 2022-23.
The reason on these trends is unclear, but the observed results indicate a departure from the league’s traditional defensive focus.
SIGNIFICANT GOAL DISTRIBUTION TREND
From One to Three
The peaks in the goal distribution graphs for the past five seasons of the Russian Premier League offer an interesting insight into the league’s performance.
Notably, the 2017-18 season had the highest number of matches ending with just one goal, while the 2021-22 season had the most matches with three goals scored.
In between, the other three seasons had their peak at two goals. This trend is consistent with the gradual increase in the average number of goals per match, which reached its highest point of 3.07 in the current 2022-23 season.
The statistics suggest that the league has become more attacking, with higher-scoring matches and more goals per game.
THE TWO SIDES OF A TEAM
Home & Away Performance Disparity
As any football fan knows, home field advantage often makes a big difference in a team’s performance. Zenit Petersburg is no exception, with a significant difference in their goal counts when playing at home versus away.
For example, they have a 73.33% Over 2.5 goal record at home, compared to just 33.3% when playing away. For those interested in betting, this information is of great value. When Zenit is playing at home, a price for an Over 2.5 of around 1.36 (4/11) can be considered being ‘fair’, whilst in an away game the O 2.5 goal odds should be in the region of 3.0 (2/1).
It’s worth mentioning that this trend is not unique to Zenit; once you start looking you will realise that many teams in various leagues experience a similar gap in their goal counts when playing at home or away.
ODDS MASTERY: UNLOCKING BETTING POTENTIAL
Profitable Tactics
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of position within or outside the fair odds range.
This match featured two Value Bets in the targeted group: Under 2.5 goals at 1.62 and Under 3.5 goals at 1.39. Both bets were within the expected fair odds range and higher than Zero Odds.
The Russian League’s more attacking, high-scoring nature has probably led bettors to focus on Over goal bets, forcing bookmakers to reduce prices due to market pressure and creating value bet opportunities on the other side of the equation.
Both bets won, but it wouldn’t have been surprising if they hadn’t, as O2.5 had a 34.25% probability and O3.5 had a 23.7% probability, far from zero.
DATA-DRIVEN BETTING
Gain The Edge
We strongly believe that our “Fundamentals of Sports Betting” Course Book can be of great value to those who seek to elevate their betting game.
It teaches statistical analysis and odds calculation skills, including the use of Cluster Tables, which can increase your chances of success in the Over/Under Goals market.
Our course also provides insights on overcoming cognitive biases, identifying value bets, and making smart betting decisions.
Don’t miss out on the opportunity to bet smarter in this intense and unpredictable league. Buy our course book today
