Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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A well-calculated risk is the bettor’s secret weapon against the unpredictability of the market.
MORE POSSESSION, MORE GOALS ?
The Portuguese Way
The Portugal Primeira Liga is a league that’s defined by its focus on possession-based football.
Teams in this league prioritize maintaining possession of the ball and building up their attacks through strategic passes and movement.
This emphasis on possession not only allows for more controlled gameplay but should also lead to more shots and ultimately, more goals. Shouldn’t it?
As a result, the league boasts impressive offensive statistics, making it a popular destination for those who love to bet on goals.
STRATEGIC DOMINANCE VS UNPREDICTABILITY
The Possession-Goal Paradox
The Primeira Liga in Portugal is synonymous with possession-based football, leading to impressive offensive stats.
However, goal-scoring gradually declined from 2.70 to 2.42 since 2017-18, with a further drop during the Covid-19 season.
The 2021-22 season saw a resurgence, with a home goals average remaining consistent and unpredictable away goals. Over 2.5 goals increased, suggesting a continuation of strategic passes and movement, but under 2.5 goals are rising again in the current 2022-23 season.
The league continues to evolve, and while strategy dominates, unpredictable away goals provide fans with thrilling football matches.
THE CURVED PATH OF AVERAGE GOALS
Beyond the Straight Line
The graph shows two trendlines that reveal patterns in the data that are not straight, but follow a curved path.
The light blue line represents the actual data of five years with many fluctuations, while the dark blue line is the moving average of that data, and the red line is a polynomial trendline.
Look at the graph and you can see that matches where the favourites play at home or away have an average with more goals than the league’s average of 2.58 goals per game over five years.
Specifically, matches where the favourites play at home (HO/AO quotient up to 0.2) and away (HO/AO quotient over 1.2) have an average higher than 2.58 goals per game, while the other matches have a lower average.
NAVIGATING CONFLICTING VALUE BETS
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.
This match was intriguing, with four conflicting Value Bets: Under 3.5 goals at 1.88, Under 4.5 goals at 1.27, and Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals. In effect, only one outcome would allow all four bets to win, and that would be exactly three goals.
In such a situation, a smart bettor has two options: (A) Skip this match and move on or (B) examine the odds for three-goal bets and determine their value.
We didn’t take the chance but noted the losing bet (red) and the winning bets (green) in the tables.
THRILLING, HEART-PUMPING, PASSIONATE
Bet Smarter, Not Harder
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With a focus on the Over/Under Goals market, you’ll learn how to use Cluster Tables to calculate odds and spot value in the market.
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