Portugal Primeira Liga Cluster Tables



Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables
Valid for the 2023-24 season

FT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 6.5 Goals
HT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 2.5 Goals

Immerse yourself in Portugal’s Primeira Liga with our unique Cluster Tables – an innovative tool designed to decode the complexities of goal data, assisting you in calculating fair odds with precision.

Our Cluster Tables provide incisive insights for predicting goal frequencies, empowering you with the capacity to perform in-depth calculations of goal probabilities and Zero-Odds.

Discern patterns, seize value and evolve your Over/Under betting from a mere hunch to a thrilling, data-driven strategy. With the Primeira Liga and our Cluster Tables, you’re not just a fan, but a potent player in your own profitable betting journey.

Should you not know: >>> What is a Cluster Table? <<<

With your purchase, you will also receive the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables for the 2022-23 season, allowing you to backtest your strategies. Please note that there was a major upgrade this season, and the layout of the previous tables may appear a little outdated.

Product Specification
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Table (1530 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 1.05 MB)

Portugal Primeira Liga Calendar
Start Date: 11th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 14th January, 2024

2nd Half starts: 21th January, 2024
Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.

Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.

A well-calculated risk is the bettor’s secret weapon against the unpredictability of the market.


The Portuguese Way

The Portugal Primeira Liga is a league that’s defined by its focus on possession-based football.

Teams in this league prioritize maintaining possession of the ball and building up their attacks through strategic passes and movement.

This emphasis on possession not only allows for more controlled gameplay but should also lead to more shots and ultimately, more goals. Shouldn’t it?

As a result, the league boasts impressive offensive statistics, making it a popular destination for those who love to bet on goals.

Liga Portugal, Enzo Fernandez and another player fight for the ball

Graph of Goal Distribution - Portugal Primeira - 2017-18 to 2021-22


The Possession-Goal Paradox

The Primeira Liga in Portugal is synonymous with possession-based football, leading to impressive offensive stats.

However, goal-scoring gradually declined from 2.70 to 2.42 since 2017-18, with a further drop during the Covid-19 season.

The 2021-22 season saw a resurgence, with a home goals average remaining consistent and unpredictable away goals. Over 2.5 goals increased, suggesting a continuation of strategic passes and movement, but under 2.5 goals are rising again in the current 2022-23 season.

The league continues to evolve, and while strategy dominates, unpredictable away goals provide fans with thrilling football matches.


Beyond the Straight Line

The graph shows two trendlines that reveal patterns in the data that are not straight, but follow a curved path.

The light blue line represents the actual data of five years with many fluctuations, while the dark blue line is the moving average of that data, and the red line is a polynomial trendline.

Look at the graph and you can see that matches where the favourites play at home or away have an average with more goals than the league’s average of 2.58 goals per game over five years.

Specifically, matches where the favourites play at home (HO/AO quotient up to 0.2) and away (HO/AO quotient over 1.2) have an average higher than 2.58 goals per game, while the other matches have a lower average.

Graph of the Average goal number by HOAO quotient - Portugal Primeira - 2017-18 to 2021-22

Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Over - Portugal Primeira - Porto vs Portimonense 2023.04.02 Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Under - Portugal Primeira - Porto vs Portimonense 2023.04.02
Click on the image above to toggle manually between Over and Under calculations


Strategic Decisions

In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.

This match was intriguing, with four conflicting Value Bets: Under 3.5 goals at 1.88, Under 4.5 goals at 1.27, and Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals. In effect, only one outcome would allow all four bets to win, and that would be exactly three goals.

In such a situation, a smart bettor has two options: (A) Skip this match and move on or (B) examine the odds for three-goal bets and determine their value.

We didn’t take the chance but noted the losing bet (red) and the winning bets (green) in the tables.


Bet Smarter, Not Harder

Are you ready to elevate your betting game and join the ranks of the most successful sports bettors? Our comprehensive course book, ‘Fundamentals of Sports Betting‘, is your ticket to mastery.

With a focus on the Over/Under Goals market, you’ll learn how to use Cluster Tables to calculate odds and spot value in the market.

No more relying on luck, no more guesswork. This book is your guide to understanding the mathematics behind betting and making informed decisions that lead to real results.

Get ready to dominate the betting scene and take your winnings to the next level. Grab your copy of the course book today!

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