Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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The beauty of statistics lies in its ability to reveal the hidden patterns within the chaos of betting markets.
Deadly from Corners
The Austrian league is known for being particularly adept at scoring from set-pieces, such as free-kicks and corners.
Teams that excel in set-piece play often win and contribute to higher-scoring games. Set-piece goals are typically scored from long-range shots or headers, making them more difficult to defend against.
Austrian football’s unpredictability and high-scoring potential make it ideal for thrilling goal betting opportunities.
GOALS KEEP FLOWING
Covid-19 or Not
The Austrian Bundesliga (12 teams) follows a double round-robin format, meaning that each team plays against every other team twice.
The league also features a playoff phase, known as the Meistergruppe and Qualifikationsgruppe, where the top six and bottom six teams respectively play against each other twice, leading to a total of 192 matches per season.
The format was slightly changed in the 2018-19 season, leading to an increase from 180 matches in the previous season and had a slight effect on the statistical pattern as you can see from the graph. However, the Covid-19 pandemic did not effect on the number of goals scored.
USING A TEAM’S GOAL DISPARITY TO YOUR ADVANTAGE
Predicting the Future
Football is a game of numbers, and understanding the science behind odds can give you a significant advantage when it comes to betting.
It’s crucial to consider the difference in goal counts between matches played at home and away, as it’s a prevalent trend across many teams and leagues, including Salzburg.
When Salzburg plays at home, approx. 3 out of 10 matches (28.9%) finish with less than 3 goals. But when they play away, this figure rises to almost 4 out of 10 matches (37.5%).
To quantify this knowledge, the Under 2.5 bet should be priced as high as 3.46 (5/2) when Salzburg plays at home. But when Salzburg is the away team, a price of 2.67 (7/4) would be more reasonable.
MITIGATING BETTING RISKS
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets using probabilities (the fourth column: Average) between 60% and 95%. We choose bets above Zero odds, within or outside the fair odds range.
This match got two Value Bets: Under 4.5 goals at 1.21 odds and Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 odds. By betting on both, we essentially wager on 3 or 4 match goals, acknowledging a 30% probability that one bet may lose.
To minimize loss, we adjust the stake so that losses are equal, regardless of which bet wins or loses.
In this case, both bets won, further proving the Cluster Tables as a valuable tool for bettors.
THE SCIENCE OF FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS
Gain the Winning Advantage
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Delve into the science of football predictions, harnessing historical data to accurately predict over/under goals.
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