Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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In the game of betting, the most skilled players are those who wield the power of statistics and probabilities to turn the odds in their favour.
QUALITY OVER QUANTITY
Tiki-Taka & Goals
Tiki-taka has been popularized by Spanish teams such as Barcelona and the Spanish national team.
This style can be frustrating for opponents who find themselves unable to regain possession of the ball.
While it often results in fewer goals, it creates numerous scoring opportunities through patient build-up play. Before placing a bet on goals very careful analysis is required when teams playing tiki-taka are involved.
Other teams known for playing a tiki-taka style include Bayern Munich and Manchester City.
AN EVOLUTIONARY VIEW OF GOAL DISTRIBUTION
Beyond Stats
The goal distribution in Spain’s La Liga follows a consistent pattern, similar ‘statistically correct’ as Germany’s Bundesliga.
However, it noteworthy that over the last 20 years, average goals have gradually decreased, from 2.84 (2000-01) to 2.50 (2021-22), and the current season (2022-23) this trend continuing.
Home teams score more goals than away teams, with 1.38 and 1.05 goals per match, respectively. Matches with over 2.5 goals remain stable at 44%, and those with under 2.5 goals around 56%.
The 2017-18 season had a visible drop, deviating from the norm where the curve usually peaks at 2 goals. In the statistically perfect La Liga, the reasons for the 2017-18 remain unclear.
THE ART OF MAKING INFORMED BETS
Bet with Confidence
The Margin of Error is the percentage by which results can differ from the expected value.
For instance, if the expectation of the Under 2.5 goal bet is 58.3%, the probability range would be from 55.67% to 60.93%, indicating that all odds for the U 2.5 bet between 1.64 and 1.80 would be fair.
The larger the margin of error, the less confident one should be about the expected outcome.
Though not an exact definition of error, it is an easy statistical concept to understand, and the results are accurate enough to make informed betting decisions.
The European winter leagues with low margins of error are: the Spanish La Liga, the EPL, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Portuguese Primeira, Russian Premier League, and Swiss Super League.
RETHINKING LA LIGA: GOAL AVERAGE SHIFTS
New Opportunities
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.
For this match, we picked one value bet outside our 60-95% probability range: the Under 2.5 goal bet, with a 58.3% zero-probability to win. The six potential candidates within in our range (U3.5, U4.5, U5.5, U6.5, O0.5, O1.5) all had odds well below the fair odds range.
It seems average punters haven’t yet recognised that Spanish La Liga goal averages are gradually decreasing, making Under 2.5 goal bets more likely than before.
The bet won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised if not, as O2.5 had a 41.7% probability, far from zero.
ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO Y CÁLCULO DE CUOTAS
Beat the Bookies
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