Spain La Liga Primera Cluster Tables


Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables
Valid for the 2023-24 season

FT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 6.5 Goals
HT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 2.5 Goals

Delve into the exhilarating world of Spain’s Primera Liga with our Cluster Tables – your clandestine tool for studying goal data and calculating odds.

Our Cluster Tables gift you with eye-opening insights, empowering forecasts of goal numbers and enabling comprehensive computations of probabilities and Zero-Odds.

Unearth patterns, capture value, and evolve your betting from mere guess work to a compelling, data-driven quest. With the Primera Liga and our Cluster Tables, you’re not just a bystander, but a strategic punter steering your own lucrative betting journey.

Should you not know: >>> What is a Cluster Table? <<<

With your purchase, you will also receive the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables for the 2022-23 season, allowing you to backtest your strategies. Please note that there was a major upgrade this season, and the layout of the previous tables may appear a little outdated.

Product Specification
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Table (1900 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 1.18 MB)

  • In conjunction with the Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course
  • 11 teams with 5 seasons of data: Ath Bilbao, Atl Madrid, Barcelona, Betis, Celta, Getafe, Real Madrid, Sevilla, Sociedad, Valencia, Villarreal
  • 110 games out of 380 = 28.95% of all 2023-24 games available for betting
  • Includes Inflection Points Graphs for Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Spain La Liga Primera Calendar
Start Date: 11th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 03rd January, 2024

2nd Half starts: 14th January, 2024
Finish Date: 26th May, 2024

Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.

Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.

In the game of betting, the most skilled players are those who wield the power of statistics and probabilities to turn the odds in their favour.


Tiki-Taka & Goals

Tiki-taka has been popularized by Spanish teams such as Barcelona and the Spanish national team.

This style can be frustrating for opponents who find themselves unable to regain possession of the ball.

While it often results in fewer goals, it creates numerous scoring opportunities through patient build-up play. Before placing a bet on goals very careful analysis is required when teams playing tiki-taka are involved.

Other teams known for playing a tiki-taka style include Bayern Munich and Manchester City.

Ousmane Dembele (FC Barcelona) fights for the ball

Graph of Goal Distribution - Spain La Liga - 2017-18 to 2021-22
Data in the ‘Goal Distributions’ tab in the Cluster Tables


Beyond Stats

The goal distribution in Spain’s La Liga follows a consistent pattern, similar ‘statistically correct’ as Germany’s Bundesliga.

However, it noteworthy that over the last 20 years, average goals have gradually decreased, from 2.84 (2000-01) to 2.50 (2021-22), and the current season (2022-23) this trend continuing.

Home teams score more goals than away teams, with 1.38 and 1.05 goals per match, respectively. Matches with over 2.5 goals remain stable at 44%, and those with under 2.5 goals around 56%.

The 2017-18 season had a visible drop, deviating from the norm where the curve usually peaks at 2 goals. In the statistically perfect La Liga, the reasons for the 2017-18 remain unclear.


Bet with Confidence

The Margin of Error is the percentage by which results can differ from the expected value.

For instance, if the expectation of the Under 2.5 goal bet is 58.3%, the probability range would be from 55.67% to 60.93%, indicating that all odds for the U 2.5 bet between 1.64 and 1.80 would be fair.

The larger the margin of error, the less confident one should be about the expected outcome.

Though not an exact definition of error, it is an easy statistical concept to understand, and the results are accurate enough to make informed betting decisions.

The European winter leagues with low margins of error are: the Spanish La Liga, the EPL, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Portuguese Primeira, Russian Premier League, and Swiss Super League.

Graph of Margin of Error %CV- OU Goals - Spain Primeira 2017-22
Graph to be found in the ‘Goal Distributions’ tab in the Cluster Tables

Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Over - Spain La Liga Primera - Atl. Madrid vs Betis 2023.04.02 Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Under - Spain La Liga Primera - Atl. Madrid vs Betis 2023.04.02
Click on the image above to toggle manually between Over and Under calculations


New Opportunities

In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.

For this match, we picked one value bet outside our 60-95% probability range: the Under 2.5 goal bet, with a 58.3% zero-probability to win. The six potential candidates within in our range (U3.5, U4.5, U5.5, U6.5, O0.5, O1.5) all had odds well below the fair odds range.

It seems average punters haven’t yet recognised that Spanish La Liga goal averages are gradually decreasing, making Under 2.5 goal bets more likely than before.

The bet won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised if not, as O2.5 had a 41.7% probability, far from zero.


Beat the Bookies

Our comprehensive “Fundamentals of Sports Betting” course book offers a deep dive into statistical analysis, odds calculation, and the ingenious use of Cluster Tables.

With a plethora of easy-to-understand examples using real football data, you’ll master the art of calculating fair odds, comparing them with market odds, and identifying lucrative value bets.

Don’t let this game-changing opportunity pass you by – order your copy today and elevate your betting prowess to new heights!

Two bears in a forest clearing. One of them on a desl on a computer. The other bear at the side of a rubbish bin, his paws, mouse, feet, everything covered with empty can. The bear on the computer sees that and says: You've got the right idea, just the wrong tools for betting success.