Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.
A bettor’s intuition, guided by the light of statistics, can illuminate the path to success in a world of uncertainty.
DRAW HEAVY, HIGH-SCORING
The Round-Robin Effect
The Swiss Super League’s round-robin format, in which each team plays the other teams four times per season, provides a highly competitive and balanced environment for football.
This leads to more draws and a tighter point spread among teams, making it an attractive option for betting on Over/Under goals.
With an average of 2.87 goals per match in the 2022-23 season, 1.56 home goals and 1.31 away goals, this format contributes to high-scoring matches, as teams play each other over a shorter period.
FROM LOW-SCORING TO THRILLING
The goal distribution in the Swiss Super League has displayed fascinating trends in recent years.
While the away goals average has remained stable, there has been a slight rise in the average goal numbers and home goals average.
But what’s most significant is the increase in high-scoring games, with over 2.5 goals scored in 62% of matches during the 2021-22 season. Simultaneously, the proportion of games with under 2.5 goals has steadily decreased, indicating fewer low-scoring games.
The Swiss Super League appears to have become a more thrilling and goal-filled competition in the last decade.
HOW THE SWISS SUPER LEAGUE STANDS OUT
The Hidden Advantage
The Swiss Super League and Danish league have a unique format where each team plays the other teams four times per season. This leads to more balance and is demonstrated in the graph showcasing the goal counts for Basel’s matches at home versus away.
Looking specifically at Over 2.5 goals, Basel’s home matches have a 61.9% chance of finishing with O 2.5 goals, while their away matches have a 57.8% chance. Translating this into odds, a fair price for an O 2.5 bet with Basel playing at home should be around 1.62 (8/13), while for an away match, it should be around 1.73 (8/11).
This information is essential when assessing whether the odds are fair.
CLUSTER TABLES: YOUR BETTING COMPASS
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.
This match had six betting candidates within our selected probability range: Under 3.5, Under 4.5, Under 4.5, Under 6.5, Over 0.5, and Over 1.5. Unfortunately, all odds were either exactly Zero-odds or below them, although most were within the expected probability range.
We picked the U4.5 bet with odds at 1.22 and an 81.9% probability to win, just to have a pick for this match but the odds were exact Zero-odds.
The bet won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised if not, as O4.5 had an 18.1% probability, far from zero.
MASTER CLASS IN SPORTS BETTING
Ready to turn your love of sports into profit? Our comprehensive course book, “Fundamentals of Sports Betting“, teaches you how to harness the power of statistics to calculate odds, identify value bets, and maximise your profits.
With the expert use of Cluster Tables, you can effectively compare fair odds with market odds and make well-informed decisions.
Don’t be deceived by odds – they’re simply prices for bets based on probability. Master the art of sports betting, and let statistics pave your way to victory.
Secure your copy today and transform your betting game!