Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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NO EASY WINS, JUST ENDLESS GOALS
No Team Dominates
The Denmark Superligaen is a unique league known for its competitive balance and high-scoring matches.
Five different teams have won the league title in the past decade, highlighting the league’s parity.
One of the league’s remarkable features is its high-scoring matches, where teams have been averaging almost three goals per game in recent seasons, and over 60% of matches seeing over 2.5 goals
For fans and bettors alike, the Superligaen offers an exciting opportunity to witness thrilling matches filled with goals.
FROM 14 TO 12 & TWO PLAYOFFS
New Format, Same Goals
In 2019-20, the Danish Superliga reduced the number of teams from 14 to 12, playing a total of 192 matches (before: 236).
Each team now plays 32 games per season, starting with 22 matches against every side. In spring, the league splits into a championship playoff and a qualifying playoff, with teams in the top and bottom six playing each other twice more.
Neither the Covid-9 nor the change of the league format affected the number of average goals. There were 2.87 in 2017-18, 2.79 in 2018-19, 2.78 in 2019-20, 2.89 in 2020-21 and 2.66 in 2021-22.
THE CODE OF SUCCESSFUL FOOTBALL BETTING
The Danish and Swiss football leagues have a secret weapon: their round-robin format. With each team playing each other four times per season, the teams feel right at home in their opponents’ stadiums. But don’t be fooled, there is still a difference between playing at home and away.
Just take Randers FC for example. When playing at home, 52.5% of their matches finish with Under 2.5 goals, while only 42.5% of their away matches do the same. This means that betting on Under 2.5 goals when Randers is playing at home should be priced around 1.92 (10/11) and 2.35 (11/8) when playing away.
This crucial knowledge can make or break a bettor’s success. So remember, when making betting decisions, take into consideration the goal disparity between home and away matches to judge if the price (odds) is fair or not.
CLUSTER TABLES UNVEIL HIDDEN VALUE
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets using probabilities between 60% and 95% (the fourth column: Average). We choose bets with odds above zero, regardless of their position within the fair odds range.
This match had two Value Bets: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28 odds and Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 odds. Both bets exceeded the expected fair odds range, appearing somewhat suspicious. Public opinion pressure might have caused this disparity. However, we were aware that neither Covid-19 nor the league format change affected the average number of goals, with Denmark averaging 2.8 goals over the last five seasons.
In this case, both bets won, even the 2.5 bet had a 31.65% chance of not winning, we wouldn’t have been surprised.
UNVEILING THE WINNING FORMULA
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Dive into the science of odds calculation, master the skill of accurately predicting over/under goals using historical data, and craft a personalized winning strategy.
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