EPL Over/Under Goals Cluster Tables 2023-24

LEAGUE OF UNPREDICTABLE RESULTS

Goal Scoring Battlefields

The fiercely competitive EPL results in closely contested games where any team can win on any given day.

Teams must balance their defensive and attacking strategies, resulting in a reduction in the number of goals scored.

The league’s unpredictability often leads to upsets, with smaller clubs defeating bigger ones.

EPL games are always an exciting and unpredictable experience, with no clear favourite, and the potential for any team to score a last-minute winner.

REMARKABLE GOAL CONSISTENCY

EPL Unpredictable? Think Again.

Despite its unpredictable reputation, the English Premier League has a remarkably consistent goal distribution.

The graphs showing five seasons, including the Covid-affected season, demonstrate similar frequencies of one-goal, two-goal, and three-goal games, etc.

For example, using the Cluster Tables, we know that there will be approximately 94 +/- 7 matches with two goals the following season and that the average goal count will be in the region of 2.7/2.8.

By the way, at the time of writing, the average goal count of the past season (2022-23), was 2.73, with 71% of matches played so far. 280 matches had been played, of which 63 finished with two goals. Doing the maths: The 2022-23 season were likely to finish with 88/89 two-goal matches. It finished with 87, as predicted.

Intrigued? Accurate predictions are possible with the right tools and understanding.

PUBLIC PERCEPTION VS REALITY

O/U 2.5 Goal Odds Exposed

Backing all over 2.5 goal bets in EPL in the five years until 2021-22 would have resulted in a considerable loss of approximately 6000 units. However, betting on the under 2.5 goals would have yielded a profit.

The reason behind it is that the average goal count in the EPL is around 2.7/2.8, leading the public favour Over bets and allowing the bookmakers to adjust their odds (prices) accordingly.

Although betting on all Under 2.5 goals would have yielded a profit of around 2000 units, it would not cover the loss from the Over bets. Why? There is always a bookmakers’ profit margin or “overround”.

This graph is a fascinating insight into how bookmakers operate and maximise their profits. It also highlights the importance of understanding odds for any sports bettor.

BETTING BRILLIANCE THROUGH CLUSTER TABLES

Savvy Selections

In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets using probabilities between 60% and 95% (the fourth column: Average). We choose bets with odds above zero, irrespective of their position within or without the fair odds range.

This match had three Value Bets: Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 odds, Under 3.5 goals at 1.40, and Under 4.5 goals at 1.14. All three bets were well above the expected fair odds range, appearing somewhat suspicious. After investigating the background, we trusted the Cluster Tables and concluded that public opinion caused the disparity. We knew from the Over/Under 2.5 goals inflection graphs that the Under odds in the EPL often favour bettors, while the Over odds often not.

All bets won, although the Under 2.5 bet had a 33.3% chance of not winning. If we had lost that bet, we wouldn’t have been surprised.

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