EPL Over/Under Goals Cluster Tables


Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables
Valid for the 2023-24 season

FT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 6.5 Goals
HT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 2.5 Goals

The English Premier League (EPL) is known for its fierce competitiveness and talented players, making it one of the most exciting leagues globally.

While goals can be unpredictable, the EPL’s consistent goal distribution provides valuable insights for bettors. Using Cluster Tables, you can identify Value Bets with higher probabilities and gain an advantage over public perceptions. Discover the thrilling world of EPL betting, where last-minute winners and surprises are part of the game.

Trust the Cluster Tables to make informed betting decisions and increase your chances of success in this exhilarating league.

Should you not know: >>> What is a Cluster Table? <<<

With your purchase, you will also receive the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables for the 2022-23 season, allowing you to backtest your strategies. Please note that there was a major upgrade this season, and the layout of the previous tables may appear a little outdated.

Product Specification
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Table (1900 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 1.18 MB)

  • In conjunction with the Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course
  • 12 teams with 5 seasons of data: Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle, Tottenham, West Ham, Wolves
  • 132/380 games = 34.74% of all 2023-24 games available for betting
  • Includes Inflection Points Graphs for Over/Under 2.5 Goals
EPL League Calendar
Start Date: 11th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 30th December, 2023
2nd Half starts: 13th January, 2024
Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.

Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.

The beauty of betting lies in the delicate balance between the calculated certainty of statistics and the unpredictable thrill of chance.


Goal Scoring Battlefields

The fiercely competitive EPL results in closely contested games where any team can win on any given day.

Teams must balance their defensive and attacking strategies, resulting in a reduction in the number of goals scored.

The league’s unpredictability often leads to upsets, with smaller clubs defeating bigger ones.

EPL games are always an exciting and unpredictable experience, with no clear favourite, and the potential for any team to score a last-minute winner.

Graph of Goal Distribution - EPL - 2017-18 to 2021-22


EPL Unpredictable? Think Again.

Despite its unpredictable reputation, the English Premier League has a remarkably consistent goal distribution.

The graphs showing five seasons, including the Covid-affected season, demonstrate similar frequencies of one-goal, two-goal, and three-goal games, etc.

For example, using the Cluster Tables, we know that there will be approximately 94 +/- 7 matches with two goals the following season and that the average goal count will be in the region of 2.7/2.8.

By the way, at the time of writing, the average goal count of the past season (2022-23), was 2.73, with 71% of matches played so far. 280 matches had been played, of which 63 finished with two goals. Doing the maths: The 2022-23 season were likely to finish with 88/89 two-goal matches. It finished with 87, as predicted.

Intrigued? Accurate predictions are possible with the right tools and understanding.


O/U 2.5 Goal Odds Exposed

Backing all over 2.5 goal bets in EPL in the five years until 2021-22 would have resulted in a considerable loss of approximately 6000 units. However, betting on the under 2.5 goals would have yielded a profit.

The reason behind it is that the average goal count in the EPL is around 2.7/2.8, leading the public favour Over bets and allowing the bookmakers to adjust their odds (prices) accordingly.

Although betting on all Under 2.5 goals would have yielded a profit of around 2000 units, it would not cover the loss from the Over bets. Why? There is always a bookmakers’ profit margin or “overround”.

This graph is a fascinating insight into how bookmakers operate and maximise their profits. It also highlights the importance of understanding odds for any sports bettor.

Profit Loss simulation: Inflection Graphs O&U 2.5 goals - EPL - 2017-22; the curves going in opposite directions
To be found in the ‘OU 2.5 Goals IP’s’ tab in the Cluster Tables

Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Over - England Premier League - Newcastle vs Manchester Utd 2023.04.03 Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Under - England Premier League - Newcastle vs Manchester Utd 2023.04.03
Click on the image above to toggle manually between Over and Under calculations


Savvy Selections

In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets using probabilities between 60% and 95% (the fourth column: Average). We choose bets with odds above zero, irrespective of their position within or without the fair odds range.

This match had three Value Bets: Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 odds, Under 3.5 goals at 1.40, and Under 4.5 goals at 1.14. All three bets were well above the expected fair odds range, appearing somewhat suspicious. After investigating the background, we trusted the Cluster Tables and concluded that public opinion caused the disparity. We knew from the Over/Under 2.5 goals inflection graphs that the Under odds in the EPL often favour bettors, while the Over odds often not.

All bets won, although the Under 2.5 bet had a 33.3% chance of not winning. If we had lost that bet, we wouldn’t have been surprised.


Achieve Unprecedented Success

Unlock the potential of profitable sports betting through our Cluster Tables and the comprehensive “Sports Betting Fundamentals” course book.

Delve deep into odds calculation and accurately predict over/under goals utilising historical data. Create a personalized winning strategy, pinpoint value bets like a seasoned expert, and transform your sports betting experience.

Turn your passion for sports into a lucrative venture. Don’t just watch the game – make money from it. Get your copy now.

Cartoon about profit, curve dropping: It's a flipchart ... Let's just flip it over.