The Science of Football Predictions: Over Under ‘X’ Goals



Master Sharp Betting: Dominate Over Under & Value Betting

Explore the intriguing connection between betting, science, and psychology with Soccerwidow’s course book.

It’s the perfect resource for those aiming to transform high-risk gambling into a skill-based practice. Gain a robust understanding of Over/Under goal betting strategies and confidently navigate the dynamic sports betting landscape.

Written by a female financial professional, this guide, free from typical gambling machismo, debunks football betting myths and provides insights into skill-based betting. It unveils the connection between betting, science, and psychology.

This timeless course is relevant to all sports betting, offering key statistical concepts, odds calculations, and risk management techniques.

By mastering probability calculations and using Cluster Tables for goal betting, you’ll confidently navigate Over Under markets, making informed decisions, and evolving into a value betting professional.

Product Specification
Course with Study Cluster Tables for the German Bundesliga Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

Using examples from real Bundesliga matches, our course book makes statistical concepts approachable by focusing on the predictability of goal counts in a statistically consistent league, suitable for both, beginners or experienced bettors.


  • Format: PDF & XLS The PDF is a professionally formatted document and can be double-sided printed and spiral bound.
  • Publisher: Soccerwidow; 2nd Edition (July 2016)
  • Pages: 169
  • Tables and graphs: 70
  • Example tasks: more than 80 (with solutions)
  • Language: ENGLISH
  • Download Size: Course (PDF): 5.2 MB & Excel file: 782 KB
  • Complementary German Bundesliga Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Table for the 2023-24 season: Excel .xlsx, 1.05 MB

The timeless nature of mathematics is rooted in its universal truths and unchanging logic.

About the Author
Elena Schaelike - Portrait photo Elena is a quantitative analyst, financial advisor, and founder of Soccerwidow.

She holds a teacher degree as well as an M.B.A. in economics with an emphasis on quantitative analysis, maths and financial management

Author’s Introduction
This course is designed to give you the essential, fundamental knowledge necessary to understand odds calculation and the bookmaker market.

It deals with relatively simple descriptive statistics and teaches you how to look at data sets, calculate your own probabilities and odds, analyse the market odds on offer, and make informed decisions when predicting football results.

Amongst the topics we will work through are distributions, deviations, graphs and charts, odds calculation, financial terminologies, risk management, and of course, how to identify ‘value’ in the betting market.

You will be surprised to learn that this is not only possible, but actually quite easy. You may be astonished to learn how bookmakers set their odds and operate.

You will find out how odds are manipulated during the ante post period, not by the bookmakers, but by the punters themselves.

At the end of this course, you should be able to predict Over/Under goals with an uncanny degree of accuracy, impress your friends, and astound yourself.

The dance between market dynamics and probabilities creates a rhythm that bettors can learn to anticipate.


Course Book on Over Under ‘X’ Goals

The Power of Statistics:
Master the Science of Prediction

No assumptions, guesses, or emotions; our approach is grounded in and validated by numbers.

Satisfaction Guaranteed:
Simple, Accessible Explanations in Clear English

Our course teaches odds calculation, reigniting enthusiasm for numbers in those previously discouraged by math.

Top Secret BONUS:
Unveiling the Secrets of Successful Picks

Discover two distinct methods for selecting ‘value’ in your portfolio, which can be used independently or in tandem.

Two students studying Soccerwidows course book, one is looking over the shoulder to look what the other guy is writing

Spain La Liga - example calculation from Cluster Table


Understanding Probabilities

Bookmakers use advanced statistical modelling and intricate equations to calculate odds and corresponding probabilities. It’s a constantly evolving field that requires a truly deep understanding of mathematics and statistics.

However, rather than delving into complex statistical models and algorithms, our course aims to impart a fundamental understanding of statistics that is accessible to the average person.

You will learn how to calculate probabilities for Over/Under goals using our Cluster Tables, a tool that we developed to ease the calculation process. At the end of the course, you will be able to estimate probabilities for Over Under goals, for any league of your choice with pretty high accuracy.


Betting on Goals

Betting on over under goals is a simple and straightforward approach to football betting. Unlike other bet types, it only focuses on one question: how many goals will be scored in total?

This question can be analysed using statistical and historical data, making it easy to estimate probabilities without the need to consider a wide range of variables and factors that influence the outcome of the match.

Furthermore, betting on goals is more forgiving than other bet types since it only involves two options: Over or Under.

The Cluster Tables, which utilise the HO/AO quotient, are a useful tool to factor in the current form of the teams and improve the accuracy of the prediction.

Collage of goal keeper saving goal with goal distribution chart
Concept illustration bookmakers balancing books


Capitalizing on Odds ‘Errors’

Explore the market dynamics of bookmaking and understand how bookmakers calculate odds, revealing potential pricing ‘errors’ that can be exploited.

You’ll learn that odds do not always represent true probabilities, and discover how they are influenced by public opinion and manipulated by punters during the ante post period.

By examining bookmakers’ constraints and strategies like ‘balancing the book,’ you’ll gain insights into finding value bets.

This knowledge, combined with your ability to calculate probabilities, will help you make informed betting decisions and navigate the ever-changing market dynamics.


Managing Betting Risks

The course book offers valuable lessons on risk control strategies and techniques. You will acquire a comprehensive understanding of financial measurements, such as yield, ROI, and profitability, and their relevance and application in risk control.

Moreover, you will learn the concepts of mathematical advantage and value, which are crucial for making informed and successful betting decisions.

You will also learn how to calculate the ideal starting bank size, considering your level of risk tolerance and expected return on investment.

With the skills and knowledge gained from our course book, you will be better prepared to manage betting risks and maximize your profits in sports betting.

Coins and balance - illustration risk control

In goal betting, we don’t just watch the game; we delve into a world of probabilities and numbers.

Soccerwidow Original
Explore our Collection of Powerful Over Under Quotes


In the game of betting, a firm grasp of probabilities can be the difference between walking away a winner or a loser.


Fundamentals of Sports Betting (Our Betting on Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Course) is unlike any other book you will find elsewhere. It contains insights into how mathematics and statistics are applied to bookmaking, information that is rarely (if at all) found in the public domain. Have you ever wondered how bookmakers set their odds? They must be pretty good at it to remain trading in a high risk industry built on small margins!


Contents of the Course Book at a Glance

Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probability, Betting Odds, Value, Yield, Profitability


Basic Statistical Terminology

  • Goal Distribution and Percentage Calculation
  • Deviation from the Mean
  • Standard Deviation – The Main Measure of Variability
  • Precision, Trueness and Accuracy

Betting Odds Calculation

  • Probability and Betting Odds
  • Opening Betting Odds Range
  • Calculation of ‘Zero’ (Fair) Odds

Risk Management Control

  • Financial Terms: Yield, ROI and Profitability
  • Risk Forecasting and Evaluation: Value of a Trade (Bet)
  • Preventative Measures: Setting the Starting Bank

Section B: Developing a Betting Strategy

Market Dynamics, Cluster Groups and Betting Tables


Market Dynamics

  • Betting Odds are Prices of Bets
  • Falling Odds represent Price Increase
  • Bookmakers adjust Betting Odds to Public Opinions

Building of Cluster Groups

  • What are Cluster Groups?
  • Clustering Depending on ‘Strength’ of the Team

Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals

  • Goal Distribution by Team
  • Team Calculation Tables
  • Standard Deviation Tables
  • Using Calculation Tables to Determine Betting Odds

Finding Value Bets

  • Everything that Glitters is not Gold
  • Method I: Value Betting using Cluster Group Tables
  • Method II: Value Betting using the Value Calculator
  • Cluster Groups, Value Calculator and Bets Identification


What Do You Get For The Money?

The book comes in electronic format and the bundle includes the course book (PDF*) and a Bundesliga cluster table (Excel) for studying. The course utilises a didactic teaching approach, which adheres to a systematic and educational technique for conveying information to students. It is a very structured style of learning and as such, each section of the course should be mastered before moving on to the next. To further encourage you to learn, there is a plethora of exercises to practice what you have learned, and the solutions to the exercises are found at the end of the book, sometimes embellished with further explanations. All of the course lessons are presented in a pragmatic, easy-to-follow, step-by-step fashion, with no more than passing respect towards the sport of football and the passion of its fans. After all, this book has been written by a lady who loves maths but dislikes football…! Additionally, you have the option to acquire the latest league table for your preferred league at half the price, enabling you to promptly apply the knowledge you’ve gained.



For traditionalists, the PDF has been professionally formatted for double-sided printing. If you like, you can print your book in full-colour with a cover and add slick spiral binding. Those who prefer to read the document on their computers will find the chosen font (Myriad Pro) easy to read on the screen. Myriad Pro has a clean sans-serif aesthetic which makes it highly accessible. The electronic version also contains a plethora of easy-to-navigate links to help the learner find his way around the document.


What Level of Education does the Course Provide?

The course Fundamentals of Sports Betting – Over/Under ‘X’ Goals explains statistical applications required to calculate odds and find value in the market. All the concepts explained apply basic maths, financial management, quantitative analysis, and statistics to football betting. The course reinterprets maths covered in A-levels at school (such as analysing graphs, calculating the mean, etc.), and also introduces some statistics from the first year of university studies (e.g. standard deviation).



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