EPL – 1×2 HDAFU Simulation Tables


Full-Time 1X2 HDAFU Betting Table (XLXS)
Valid for the 2023-24 season

Unlock a new dimension to your EPL betting experience with Soccerwidow’s HDAFU tables.

These tables are precision tools that analyse historical betting patterns and highlight bookmakers’ profit-driven biases. Understand how a change in one odd can affect others and pinpoint valuable betting opportunities.

The EPL’s high-profile matches and the consistency of liquidity on Betfair provide bettors with a reliable foundation for system betting.

A key aspect in the EPL is the impact of home advantage on Home Draw Away betting. Our HDAFU tables provide clear insights into the most profitable sectors, factoring in home advantage, team form (HO/AO Quotient), and overall crowd sentiment.

Enhance your EPL betting strategy with our HDAFU tables, rich in data and insights.

Product Specification

1900 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 3.42 MB

  • Whole of Season and First and Second Halves of Season Analyses
    >> Go here to see why separate first-half and second-half season analyses are revealing!
  • Separate Inflection Point analyses based on:
    a) HO/AO Quotient (home odds divided by away odds)
    b) Odds (home, draw, away, favourite and underdog)
  • Whole of Season Analysis by Team (including five seasons break down)
  • Stake, Betting Exchange Commission and Odds Toggle features
EPL League Calendar

Start Date: 11th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 30th December, 2023

2nd Half starts: 13th January, 2024
Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

As a unique betting aid, EPL Betting HDAFU Tables study past data to detect value bet clusters, expose bookmakers’ odds manipulation, and highlight the correlation between odds changes, assisting in the identification of profitable betting strategies.

Bookmakers don’t gamble – they have a system. Emulate their approach, beat them at their own game.


Inflection Point Curves

In betting, inflection points indicate turning points in profit/loss curves and various Inflection Point graphs are to be found within the HDAFU Tables.

Bookmakers set odds to balance action on both sides of a bet, adjusting them based on public opinion.

Probabilities must total 100%, so if one site is overrated, the other is likely underrated.

Bettors can use this knowledge to find under-priced and over-priced odds clusters, which, of course, vary by league.

EPL Betting Inflection Point graph from the 1x2 HDAFU Simulation Table showing: P/L/ curve when backing the Home Win in the second half for the last five years (2018 to 2023)

Inflection Point graph from the 1x2 HDAFU Simulation Table showing: P/L/ curve when backing the Underdog in the second halt for the last five years (2018 to 2023)


Value in Underdogs

In the EPL, bookmakers face significant pressure from the market as bettors often prefer to bet on big-name teams with a clear home advantage. 

While bookmakers do consider factors like team form and injuries, their priority is to balance their books and guarantee profit by adjusting odds to attract equal money on all outcomes. 

As a result, odds may not always accurately reflect the true probability of an outcome.


HO/AO Quotient

The HO/AO quotient is crucial when betting on football, especially for matches like those in the EPL who have a clear home advantage. 

This measure of relative strength is calculated by dividing the Home Odds by the Away Odds, and can be used to compare upcoming matches with past games against teams of similar perceived strength. 

It provides insight into a team’s likelihood of success, taking into account their home advantage and recent form.

Inflection Point graph from the 1x2 HDAFU Simulation Table showing: P/L/ curve when backing the Underdog in the second halt for the last five years (2018 to 2023) - by HO AO quotient (strength of the teams)

Example calculation from the System Picker tab, from the HDAFU Tables for 2023-24 - simulating the Underdog win for the whole season with HOAO quotient between 1.973 and 2.347


Find Your System

The System Picker Tab simulates five-year profit/loss to identify successful betting systems. It allows filtering by HDAFU bet type, season, and analysis type after Inflection Point graph analysis.

The assumption is that if a system has worked over the past five years, it is likely to continue working in the upcoming season.

The results include the Longest Winning Streak (LWS) and the Longest Losing Streak (LLS) within the data set. It provides you with the average profit/loss per season, the expected hit rate, the Zero odds, among other details.

This tab also features curves that simulate the profit/loss trajectory of your selected cluster over a five-year span, displaying the profit/loss by season and providing the numerical data. Plus, there’s a great deal more to discover.


Hidden Value

Did you know that in the EPL, some teams like Leicester and Tottenham tend to be undervalued by the public, causing bookmakers to adjust their odds in the bettors’ favour? 

For instance, in the 2021-22 season, the average home odds offered for Leicester were 2.45, despite their true odds being around 1.9.

Similarly, the average bookmaker odds for Tottenham playing at home were 1.93, while their expected odds were around 1.46. 

This presents an opportunity for EPL betting, as astute bettors can capitalize on the disparity between public opinion and the actual expected outcomes.

London, England - March 02 2019: Aaron Ramsey Arsenal FC scores his goal during the Premier League match between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal at Wembley Stadium

The insights shared here are but a glimpse into the HDAFU Tables’ depth. Dive beyond these examples to uncover more layers, strategies, and nuances. Every league hides untapped potential. With Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables, you’re prepared to discover, strategize, and profit. Venture forth and redefine your betting narrative.

However, as you navigate this intricate landscape, it’s paramount to ensure your betting habits remain responsible and grounded.