Poland Ekstraklasa – HDAFU 1×2 Simulation Tables


Full-Time 1X2 HDAFU Betting Table (XLXS)
Valid for the 2023-24 season

Advance your Poland Ekstraklasa betting strategy with Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables.

Designed to uncover profitable value bet clusters, these tables allow you to discern biases in bookmakers’ odds, and grasp the domino effect of altering odds, illuminating the path to lucrative bets.

One standout insight from the Ekstraklasa’s HDAFU Inflection Point graphs is the ‘Backing the Draw’ trend in the first half. The P/L curve remains stagnant until odds of 3.5, then dramatically drops, culminating in a loss of over 8,000 units. This suggests Ekstraklasa enthusiasts shy away from draws at odds under 3.5 in certain home odds ranges.

Bookmakers capitalise on this by adjusting underdog and away team odds, a savvy move influenced by betting volumes and punter preferences. This nuanced play showcases the adage: “Follow the money.”

Dive into the complex dynamics of Poland Ekstraklasa betting with our astute HDAFU Tables, and outsmart the bookies.

Product Specification

1443 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 2.78 MB

  • Whole of Season and First and Second Halves of Season Analyses
    >> Go here to see why separate first-half and second-half season analyses are revealing!
  • Separate Inflection Point analyses based on:
    a) HO/AO Quotient (home odds divided by away odds)
    b) Odds (home, draw, away, favourite and underdog)
  • Whole of Season Analysis by Team (including five seasons break down)
  • Stake, Betting Exchange Commission and Odds Toggle features
Poland Ekstraklasa Calendar

Start Date: 04th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 16th December, 2023

2nd Half starts: 10th February, 2024
Finish Date: 25th May, 2024

The Poland Ekstraklasa HDAFU Tables provide an insightful tool for bettors, using historical data to highlight valuable bet clusters, demystify bookmakers’ odds strategies, and display the ripple effects of odds changes, fostering informed decision-making.

In 1×2 betting, home isn’t always where the heart is. It’s where the value lies.


Cracking Inflection Points

HDAFU Tables (Home Draw Away Favourite Underdog P/L simulations)‘ Inflection Point graphs provide a unique lens into the often-cryptic world of bookmakers’ odds adjustment strategies.

These graphs plot the turning points of profit/loss curves, influenced by how bookmakers juggle odds to balance their bets.

Consequently, when one outcome’s odds are inflated, another’s are deflated, ensuring the total probability remains 100%.

Bettors can decipher this code to identify under- and over-priced odds clusters. This phenomenon varies across different leagues, and the Poland Ekstraklasa is no exception.

P/L simulation curve from the 1X2 HDAFU Betting Table: Poland Extraklasa 2018-23 - Backing the draw 1st half by odds


The Market’s Influence on Odds

Bookmaker odds are not static probabilities; they are shrewdly adjusted counters in the dynamic game of the betting market.

Their objective is to secure the bookmakers’ profit margin while subtly managing public betting trends.

Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables shed light on this balancing act through P/L curves, identifying key instances of strategic odds manipulation.

Armed with this knowledge, sharp punters can identify over- and under-priced odds clusters unique to each league, effectively turning the tide in their favour.


HO/AO Quotient Unpacked

Delve into the world of 1X2 betting, and the significance of the HO/AO Quotient quickly surfaces.

Representing “Home Odds divided by Away Odds”, this ratio becomes invaluable for bettors.

While 1X2 betting traditionally spans three outcomes, the HO/AO quotient simplifies it into a binary view.

For instance, Draw odds, like 3.5, might correlate with a match having either a home favourite or an away favourite, leading to potential misjudgements.

However, by utilising the HO/AO quotient, P/L curves are presented based on teams’ relative strengths, ensuring more precise P/L curve analyses.

P/L simulation curve from the HDAFU Table: Poland Extraklasa 2018-23 - Backing the draw 1st half by HO-AO

Screenshot from the HDAFU Table: Poland Extraklasa - System Picker Tab - 1st half - backing draw by odds 2018-23 Screenshot from the 1x2 HDAFU P/L Simulation Betting Table: Poland Extraklasa - System Picker Tab - 1st half - backing draw by odds 2018-23 Profit-Loss
Click on the image above to toggle manually between slides


The Draw Dilemma

In Poland’s Ekstraklasa, backing the Draw, especially at odds between 3.5 and 4.5, seems to be a favoured bet type.

While some may favour it as a standalone bet, many likely combine it with a Home or Away win as a double bet, or as a ‘Draw No Bet’ option.

However, in the first half of the season, betting on draws within these odds over the past five years resulted in staggering losses of 7,729 units for 100-unit stakes.

There were three instances of three consecutive wins, but one painful streak of 20 consecutive losses. The hit rate stood at a mere 20.51%, translating to 4.88 Zero odds.

Exploring this 3.5 to 4.5 odds cluster more closely, the advice? Consider laying within this cluster rather than backing draws.


Ekstraklasa’s Trap

In Poland’s Ekstraklasa, regularly betting on the home win is a flawed approach.

The HDAFU Tables reveal that, over five years, staking 100 units on each of the 1,443 matches would’ve garnered a mere profit of 490 units. That’s an immense 144,300 units staked for a negligible return.

Notably, no single team presented consistent returns on home wins during this period.

Bookmakers play on the ‘chase the losses’ psychology, maintaining odds close to fair value, tempting punters to perceive certain matches as ‘MUST WIN’.

As stakes increase on these perceived favourites, bookmakers profit without needing to adjust odds significantly, capitalising instead on punters’ overconfidence.

Two football players of the Poland's Ekstraklasa league having jumped for the ball. Image taken in action. Both players look like ballet dancers.

The showcased insights are just the preamble to the HDAFU Tables‘ grand narrative. Beyond them lies a vast expanse of strategies, granular insights, and tailored nuances for every league. With Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables in your arsenal, you’re poised for a transformative betting journey.

However, amidst this expedition, it’s crucial to maintain a vigilant eye on responsible gambling practices.