Germany Bundesliga Cluster Table


Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables
Valid for the 2023-24 season

FT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 6.5 Goals
HT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 2.5 Goals

Unlock the Power of Data for Football Betting with the German Bundesliga Cluster Table: A Masterclass in Statistical Precision and Goal Prediction!

Immerse yourself in the ‘mathlete’ of football leagues with our Cluster Table, showcasing the remarkable statistical correctness and unemotional gameplay of the German Bundesliga. As the league used for our comprehensive Course Book, it reveals the secrets of football odds calculation backed by precise data.

Experience the excitement of unpredictability meets mathematical brilliance. Take your betting game to the next level with the Bundesliga Cluster Table today!

Should you not know: >>> What is a Cluster Table? <<<

With your purchase, you will also receive the Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables for the 2022-23 season, allowing you to backtest your strategies. Please note that there was a major upgrade this season, and the layout of the previous tables may appear a little outdated.

Product Specification
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Table (1530 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 1.05 MB)

  • In conjunction with the Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course
  • 11 teams with 5 seasons of data: Augsburg, Bayern Munich, Dortmund, Eintracht Frankfurt, Freiburg, Hoffenheim, Leverkusen, Mainz, Mönchengladbach, RB Leipzig, Wolfsburg
  • 110/306 games = 35.95% of all 2023-24 games available for betting
  • Includes Inflection Points Graphs for Over/Under 2.5 Goals
German Bundesliga Calendar
Start Date: 18th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 20th December, 2023
2nd Half starts: 13th January, 2024
Finish Date: 18th May, 2024

Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.

Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.

When we align ourselves with the principles of statistics and probabilities, we become architects of our own betting success.


The 50+1 Rule

The Bundesliga has a unique ownership structure that requires clubs to have a 50+1 majority stake owned by its members, ensuring that the fans have a significant say in the club’s decision-making process.

It ensures that clubs remain rooted in their communities and gives fans a voice in the club’s decision-making process.

The rule also helps maintain a competitive balance within the league, as clubs cannot be bought by wealthy investors who may not have the club’s best interests at heart.

Hamburgs Aaron und Hunt in Action gegen Wolfsburgs Felix und Uduokhai

Graph of Goal Distribution - German BL - 2017-18 to 2021-22
Data in the ‘Goal Distributions’ tab in the Cluster Tables


A Statistical Battle

The goal patterns in the German Bundesliga were distorted by Covid, resulting in a 15% deviation during the 2019-20 season.

However, the 2022-23 season reflected pre-pandemic norms with home goals accounting for 58.73% and away goals 41.27% of the total goals scored.

Similarly, the 2018-19 season had percentages of 56.54% and 43.46%, respectively.

The Bundesliga’s statistical correctness is back, showcasing its resilience and fast recovery. With an average of 3.06 goals per match over the last five seasons, it is certainly one of the highest-scoring leagues in Europe.


Data-Driven Decisions

Margin of Error is a statistical concept that measures the amount of variation or scatter around an expected value.

For example, if the expectation of a bet on Over 1.5 goals in a match is 90.6%, the probability range would be 87.92% to 93.28%, which means that the likelihood of the match finishing with Over 1.5 goals would be within the expected range.

The higher the margin of error, the wider the range of possible outcomes, and the less confidence one should have in the outcome being close to the expectations.

The European winter leagues with low margins of error are the EPL, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Portuguese Primeira Liga, Russian Premier League, the La Liga, and Swiss Super League.

Graph: Margin of Error %CV- OU Goals - German Bundesliga 2017-18 to 2021-22
Graph to be found in the ‘Goal Distributions’ tab in the Cluster Tables

Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Over - Germany Bundesliga - Bayern Munich vs Dortmund 2023.04.01 Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Under - Germany Bundesliga - Bayern Munich vs Dortmund 2023.04.01
Click on the image above to toggle manually between Over and Under calculations


Smart Betting

In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets using probabilities between 60% and 95% (the fourth column: Average). We choose bets with odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.

This match had only one Value Bet fitting our criteria: the Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.13 odds. The O2.5 bet was slightly below the Zero odds.

Although the other Over bets were above the Zero odds and within the expected fair odds range, they didn’t qualify for our picks of the day as their probabilities were below our set criteria. Nevertheless, these Over bets might have been a good choice since the Bundesliga is one of Europe’s highest-scoring leagues.

The chosen bet won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised by a loss.


Crack the Code

Unlock the unrivalled power of our Cluster Tables and transform your football betting game with our ground-breaking “Fundamentals of Sports Betting” course book.

Delve into the world of goal predictions and value bet identification using statistics, supported by real-life examples from the German Bundesliga.

Seize this extraordinary opportunity to revolutionise your betting strategy, elevate your skillset, and significantly enhance your chances of winning big.

Take control of your football betting destiny – get your copy now.

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