Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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When we align ourselves with the principles of statistics and probabilities, we become architects of our own betting success.
The 50+1 Rule
The Bundesliga has a unique ownership structure that requires clubs to have a 50+1 majority stake owned by its members, ensuring that the fans have a significant say in the club’s decision-making process.
It ensures that clubs remain rooted in their communities and gives fans a voice in the club’s decision-making process.
The rule also helps maintain a competitive balance within the league, as clubs cannot be bought by wealthy investors who may not have the club’s best interests at heart.
COVID VS. BUNDESLIGA GOALS
A Statistical Battle
The goal patterns in the German Bundesliga were distorted by Covid, resulting in a 15% deviation during the 2019-20 season.
However, the 2022-23 season reflected pre-pandemic norms with home goals accounting for 58.73% and away goals 41.27% of the total goals scored.
Similarly, the 2018-19 season had percentages of 56.54% and 43.46%, respectively.
The Bundesliga’s statistical correctness is back, showcasing its resilience and fast recovery. With an average of 3.06 goals per match over the last five seasons, it is certainly one of the highest-scoring leagues in Europe.
USING STATISTICS TO BET WISELY
Margin of Error is a statistical concept that measures the amount of variation or scatter around an expected value.
For example, if the expectation of a bet on Over 1.5 goals in a match is 90.6%, the probability range would be 87.92% to 93.28%, which means that the likelihood of the match finishing with Over 1.5 goals would be within the expected range.
The higher the margin of error, the wider the range of possible outcomes, and the less confidence one should have in the outcome being close to the expectations.
The European winter leagues with low margins of error are the EPL, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Portuguese Primeira Liga, Russian Premier League, the La Liga, and Swiss Super League.
MASTER BETTING WITH CLUSTER TABLES
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets using probabilities between 60% and 95% (the fourth column: Average). We choose bets with odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.
This match had only one Value Bet fitting our criteria: the Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.13 odds. The O2.5 bet was slightly below the Zero odds.
Although the other Over bets were above the Zero odds and within the expected fair odds range, they didn’t qualify for our picks of the day as their probabilities were below our set criteria. Nevertheless, these Over bets might have been a good choice since the Bundesliga is one of Europe’s highest-scoring leagues.
The chosen bet won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised by a loss.
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Crack the Code
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Delve into the world of goal predictions and value bet identification using statistics, supported by real-life examples from the German Bundesliga.
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