Poland Ekstraklasa Cluster Tables 2022-23

£1.25

Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Cluster Tables
Valid for Back Testing and Learning: 2022-23 Season

FT Over/Under markets between 0.5 & 6.5 Goals

The Poland Ekstraklasa exhibits a unique statistical pattern in Over/Under goal betting, offering an intriguing subject for analysis.

The league’s matches range from high-scoring thrillers to tense, low-scoring affairs, demonstrating a variety of tactical approaches.

This unpredictability makes the matches captivating for viewers, yet with the help of Cluster Tables, even these seemingly unpredictable outcomes can be systematically analyzed and anticipated. Intrigued?

Product Specification
Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Table (1434 Game Analysis 2017-22, Excel .xls, 808 kB)

  • In conjunction with the Fundamentals of Sports Betting Course
  • 11 teams with 5 seasons of data: Cracovia, Gornik Zabrze, Jagiellonia, Lech Poznan, Lechia Gdansk, Legia Warsaw, Piast Gliwice, Wisla Plock, Pogon Szczecin, Slask Wroclaw, Zaglebie Lubin
  • 110 games out of 306 = 35.95% of 2022-23 games available for betting (Includes all Championship & Relegation Group games)
Poland Ekstraklasa Calendar 2022-23
Start Date: 15th July, 2022
1st Half Ends: 12th November, 2022

2nd Half starts: 28th January, 2023
Finish Date: 28th May, 2023

Licensing for Educational and Personal Use
Our archived tables are offered at a symbolic price to enhance educational initiatives and expand learning opportunities.

For educators, a single license purchase authorizes use of our archived tables on multiple computers within one classroom, facilitating accessible and integrated learning. Individual users, however, are required to obtain a separate license for personal use.

We trust you to select the most appropriate licensing option for your needs.

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The knowledge, concepts, algorithms, and mathematical formulas derived from these tables are free to discuss and share under the CC BY-SA (Attribution-ShareAlike) license. This license allows for sharing and adapting these materials, provided that Soccerwidow is credited as the source and any derivative works are shared under the same terms.

Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.

Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.

The mastery of probability is the map that charts the course from uncertain odds to calculated success.

OVERCOMING WINTER OBSTACLES

Undersoil Heating

The Poland Ekstraklasa faces challenges during the winter due to harsh weather conditions, which may affect the schedule but not the performance.

Slippery pitch conditions are dangerous, for the players’ health and team results alike. Therefore, the league has implemented measures like undersoil heating to minimize the impact of the winter.

During the winter break from December to February, teams rest and recover, leading to more dynamic and competitive matches in the second half of the season.

Polish Ekstraklasa League, Artur Boruc of Legia, in winter, steaming

Graph of Goal Distribution - Poland Ekstraklasa - 2017-18 to 2021-22

THE EKSTRAKLASA’S ROLLERCOASTER RIDE

From Highs to Lows

Over the past five seasons, Poland’s Ekstraklasa has seen varying goal-scoring trends.

The average goals per game have fluctuated between 2.45 and 2.77, with a peak at 3 goals in the 2019-20 season.

There has been a slight trend towards more defensive play, with the average goals per game decreasing over recent seasons. The highest percentage of games with over 2.5 goals was 54% in the 2019-20 season.

Because of this fluctuation in goal-scoring, it must be noted that the Ekstraklasa may be difficult to anticipate.

CRACKING THE CODE

The Goal-Scoring Divide

This graph illustrates the goal-scoring performance of Legia Warsaw when playing at home versus away. Many teams, in most professional leagues, tend to have a notable difference in the number of goals in these two scenarios.

For instance, let’s consider matches with Over 1.5 goals. When Legia played at home, 77.36% of these games finished with Over 1.5 goals, compared to just 56.5% of away matches. When playing away, almost every second game finished with one or no goals, while at home, it’s not uncommon to see three goals or even more scored in Legia’s matches.

In terms of odds, a fair price for an Over 1.5 bet when Legia plays at home would be around 1.29 (2/7), whereas for an away game, around 1.77 (4/5) could be considered ‘fair’. With this knowledge, your chances of betting success will increase.

Graph: Poland Ekstraklasa, Legia Warsaw - Zero Odds Over X goals, home & away 2017-18 to 2021-22 Graph: Poland Ekstraklasa, Legia Warsaw - Distribution Over X goals, home & away 2017-18 to 2021-22
Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Over - Poland Ekstraklasa - Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin 2023.04.02 Table with Over Under goals probability calculations - Under - Poland Ekstraklasa - Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin 2023.04.02
Click on the image above to toggle manually between Over and Under calculations

OVERCOMING COGNITIVE TRAPS

Fact-Based Approach

In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average), choosing bets with odds above zero regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.

This match featured one Value Bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.35 odds. Under 4.5 and Under 5.5, as well as Over 0.5 and Over 1.5, were within the chosen probability range but below the Zero Odds.

A closer look reveals that, except for O0.5 and U1.5, all other bets were either Zero odds or below, with O3.5 even below the expected odds range. This suggests bettors were likely biased towards Over bets.

The chosen bet lost, unsurprisingly, since there was a 22.65% chance of losing, significantly above zero. Being a Value Bet doesn’t guarantee that every bet will win.

MASTER SPORTS BETTING WITH CLUSTER TABLES

From Novice to Pro

Transform your sports betting skills with the ultimate guide, “Fundamentals of Sports Betting“.

This comprehensive course book takes you from novice to pro, teaching you the essential statistical concepts, odds calculation, and market dynamics for success.

With an emphasis on Over/Under goal betting, you’ll learn how to use our innovative Cluster Tables to find value bets and maximize profits.

This book is the key to unlocking your full potential in the sports betting world. Don’t wait, buy now and start making smarter bets.

Cartoon: Blindfolded people walking aimlessly along the edge with the text: It's amazing how most punters interpret the phrase "find the edge".