Spain La Liga – HDAFU 1×2 Simulation Tables 2023-24

£1.20

Full-Time 1X2 HDAFU Betting Table (XLXS)
Valid for Back Testing and Learning: 2023-24 Season

Unlock the secrets of past successful betting in Spain’s La Liga with Soccerwidow’s archived HDAFU Tables.

These tables offer a deep dive into the landscape of fluctuating odds, revealing how bookmakers historically manipulated these odds and the resulting cascading effects.

In the 2023-24 season, La Liga exhibited a clear trend for backing home wins at odds above 2.7 and favouring away underdogs, which frequently led to significant losses, as bookmakers adjusted the odds in their favour.

Conversely, bookmakers tended to offer fair odds on favourites, leading to home and away profits at lower odds that hovered around zero.

A notable balance in betting patterns was found in the draw bets, which showed a rising profit/loss curve. This distinct balance, combined with La Liga’s high liquidity on Betfair, provided a solid foundation for strategic and profitable betting ventures.

Product Specification
1900 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 3.41 MB

  • Whole of Season and First and Second Halves of Season Analyses >> Go here to see why separate first-half and second-half season analyses are revealing!
  • Separate Inflection Point analyses based on: a) HO/AO Quotient (home odds divided by away odds) b) Odds (home, draw, away, favourite and underdog)
  • Whole of Season Analysis by Team (including five seasons break down)
  • Stake, Betting Exchange Commission and Odds Toggle features
Spain La Liga Calendar 2023-24
Start Date: 11th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 03rd January, 2024

2nd Half starts: 14th January, 2024
Finish Date: 26th May, 2024

Licensing for Educational and Personal Use
Our archived tables are offered at a symbolic price to enhance educational initiatives and expand learning opportunities.

For educators, a single license purchase authorizes use of our archived tables on multiple computers within one classroom, facilitating accessible and integrated learning. Individual users, however, are required to obtain a separate license for personal use. We trust you to select the most appropriate licensing option for your needs.

Please remember that the people behind Soccerwidow also appreciate being able to buy the occasional cup of coffee.

The knowledge, concepts, algorithms, and mathematical formulas derived from these tables are free to discuss and share under the CC BY-SA (Attribution-ShareAlike) license. This license allows for sharing and adapting these materials, provided that Soccerwidow is credited as the source and any derivative works are shared under the same terms.

HDAFU Tables offer bettors a data-driven approach, analysing past data to discover value bet clusters, decipher bookmakers’ odds tactics, and indicate the effects of odds changes, fostering informed betting decisions.

Once you understand how bookmakers set their odds, you’re not predicting the game; you’re predicting the profits.

MASTERING THE BETTING GAME

Harness Inflection Points

Understanding Inflection Point curves, visible in the La Liga HDAFU Tables (Home Draw Away Favourite Underdog P/L simulations), can be a game-changer for bettors.

These curves illustrate the critical turning points where losses become profits and vice versa.

The turning points occur due to bookmakers’ manipulation of odds to ensure their profits, sometimes misleading the public with overrated probabilities.

Since the total probability must remain 100%, another outcome becomes underrated. Bettors can harness this knowledge to spot these inaccuracies, identifying overrated and underrated odds clusters across different leagues to maximize profits.

P/L simulation curve: Spain La Liga 2018-23 - Backing the Favourite - whole season - favourite odds

INTRODUCTION TO THE ODDS GAME

Unveiling Odds Manipulations

Bookmaker odds aren’t simply calculated probabilities; odds are strategic moves heavily influenced by market trends and public expectations.

This dance, orchestrated to safeguard bookmakers’ profits, takes centre stage in the betting market, where bookmakers responding to market demand continually tweak the odds.

Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables illuminate this intricate choreography through P/L curves, pointing out where bookmakers have manipulated odds to steer public opinion.

When punters decipher these moves, they gain the upper hand by spotting over- and under-priced clusters unique to each league, flipping the odds in their favour.

UNVEILING THE HO/AO QUOTIENT

Demystifying Odds Analysis

The HO/AO quotient, an abbreviation for Home Odds/Away Odds quotient, serves as an integral tool for insightful odds analysis in sports betting.

It’s computed by dividing the Home Odds by the Away Odds, presenting a relative assessment of both teams’ odds rather than examining them independently.

The quotient’s strength lies in its ability to make historically comparable matches, offering a deeper perspective on odds manipulation by bookmakers.

It’s a crucial component of the HDAFU Tables, providing a unique approach to identifying profitable betting opportunities.

P/L simulation curve: Spain La Liga 2018-23 - Backing the draw - 1st half by HO AO Quotient

Screenshot from the HDAFU Table: Spain La Liga 2018-23 - System Picker Tab - 1st half season - backing the draw

TAPPING INTO PROFITABLE PATTERNS

Insightful Analysis

The System Picker Tab, an invaluable tool, predicts a five-year profit/loss journey, segmented by bet type, season (full, first or second half), analysis type (HO AO quotient or odds), and permits investigation of individual clusters.

A case in point: the draw outcome in a HO AO quotient range between 0.547 and 1.175 – a range that represents approximately equally matched teams.

Over the past five years, this strategy would have resulted in a gain of 5,263 units, averaging 1,052 units per season.

However, volatility is observed, marked by a losing streak of 10 consecutive bets and a hit rate of only 36.43%.

These numbers spotlight the requirement for a strong nerve and a reliable plan when navigating the unpredictable world of betting.

HDAFU TABLES UNMASK ODDS DYNAMICS

Betting Illusions Unravelled

By utilising HDAFU Tables, Spain’s La Liga reveals its intriguing betting nuances.

While persistent backing of away matches over five years would have led to a disheartening 16,887-unit loss, a perplexing picture emerges: the actual average odds (3.59) suggest a higher away win probability (27.84%) than the bookmakers’ odds (4.34, equivalent to a 23% probability).

Here’s where the HDAFU Tables become a guiding light.

Exploring the ‘IP’s by HOAO’ tab, we see the profit/loss curve around a HOAO quotient of 0.414, nosedive, and rest again at 1.175. This translates to away odds ranging from approximately 4.65 to 2.55.

It’s the bookmakers’ subtle manipulation of these odds, a few ticks below their fair value, that results in a misleading average.

It’s a lesson in vigilance for bettors basing their decisions on averages.

Two soccer players on the field fighting for possession; tearing on each other shirts. Representing the Spanish La Liga.

You’ve seen the doorway; the HDAFU Tables invite you into a mansion of insights. Beyond our initial showcase lie deeper layers, tailored strategies, and enlightening nuances. Every league is a trove of opportunities. Armed with Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables, you can dissect, strategize, and achieve.

Yet, on this complex journey, never lose sight of the principles of responsible gambling.