Spain La Liga – HDAFU 1×2 Simulation Tables


Full-Time 1X2 HDAFU Betting Table (XLXS)
Valid for the 2023-24 season

Unearth the secrets of successful betting in Spain’s La Liga with our HDAFU Tables.

These tables guide punters through a landscape of varying odds, unveiling how bookmakers manipulate these odds and the consequent domino effect.

Significantly, La Liga exhibits a trend for backing home wins at odds above 2.7 and favouring away underdogs. This often leads to hefty losses over time, as bookmakers adjust odds in their favour.

Conversely, they leave favourites at fair odds, resulting in home and away profits at lower odds meandering around zero. The equilibrium in the betting quotation in La Liga lies with the draw, evidenced by a rising P/L curve.

This distinct balance, twinned with La Liga’s high Betfair liquidity, paves the way for strategic and profitable betting ventures. Venture into the Spanish football betting scene, armed with insights from HDAFU Tables.


Product Specification

1900 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 3.41 MB

  • Whole of Season and First and Second Halves of Season Analyses
    >> Go here to see why separate first-half and second-half season analyses are revealing!
  • Separate Inflection Point analyses based on:
    a) HO/AO Quotient (home odds divided by away odds)
    b) Odds (home, draw, away, favourite and underdog)
  • Whole of Season Analysis by Team (including five seasons break down)
  • Stake, Betting Exchange Commission and Odds Toggle features
Spain La Liga Calendar

Start Date: 11th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 03rd January, 2024

2nd Half starts: 14th January, 2024
Finish Date: 26th May, 2024

HDAFU Tables offer bettors a data-driven approach, analysing past data to discover value bet clusters, decipher bookmakers’ odds tactics, and indicate the effects of odds changes, fostering informed betting decisions.

Once you understand how bookmakers set their odds, you’re not predicting the game; you’re predicting the profits.


Harness Inflection Points

Understanding Inflection Point curves, visible in the La Liga HDAFU Tables (Home Draw Away Favourite Underdog P/L simulations), can be a game-changer for bettors.

These curves illustrate the critical turning points where losses become profits and vice versa.

The turning points occur due to bookmakers’ manipulation of odds to ensure their profits, sometimes misleading the public with overrated probabilities.

Since the total probability must remain 100%, another outcome becomes underrated. Bettors can harness this knowledge to spot these inaccuracies, identifying overrated and underrated odds clusters across different leagues to maximize profits.

P/L simulation curve: Spain La Liga 2018-23 - Backing the Favourite - whole season - favourite odds


Unveiling Odds Manipulations

Bookmaker odds aren’t simply calculated probabilities; odds are strategic moves heavily influenced by market trends and public expectations.

This dance, orchestrated to safeguard bookmakers’ profits, takes centre stage in the betting market, where bookmakers responding to market demand continually tweak the odds.

Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables illuminate this intricate choreography through P/L curves, pointing out where bookmakers have manipulated odds to steer public opinion.

When punters decipher these moves, they gain the upper hand by spotting over- and under-priced clusters unique to each league, flipping the odds in their favour.


Demystifying Odds Analysis

The HO/AO quotient, an abbreviation for Home Odds/Away Odds quotient, serves as an integral tool for insightful odds analysis in sports betting.

It’s computed by dividing the Home Odds by the Away Odds, presenting a relative assessment of both teams’ odds rather than examining them independently.

The quotient’s strength lies in its ability to make historically comparable matches, offering a deeper perspective on odds manipulation by bookmakers.

It’s a crucial component of the HDAFU Tables, providing a unique approach to identifying profitable betting opportunities.

P/L simulation curve: Spain La Liga 2018-23 - Backing the draw - 1st half by HO AO Quotient

Screenshot from the HDAFU Table: Spain La Liga 2018-23 - System Picker Tab - 1st half season - backing the draw


Insightful Analysis

The System Picker Tab, an invaluable tool, predicts a five-year profit/loss journey, segmented by bet type, season (full, first or second half), analysis type (HO AO quotient or odds), and permits investigation of individual clusters.

A case in point: the draw outcome in a HO AO quotient range between 0.547 and 1.175 – a range that represents approximately equally matched teams.

Over the past five years, this strategy would have resulted in a gain of 5,263 units, averaging 1,052 units per season.

However, volatility is observed, marked by a losing streak of 10 consecutive bets and a hit rate of only 36.43%.

These numbers spotlight the requirement for a strong nerve and a reliable plan when navigating the unpredictable world of betting.


Betting Illusions Unravelled

By utilising HDAFU Tables, Spain’s La Liga reveals its intriguing betting nuances.

While persistent backing of away matches over five years would have led to a disheartening 16,887-unit loss, a perplexing picture emerges: the actual average odds (3.59) suggest a higher away win probability (27.84%) than the bookmakers’ odds (4.34, equivalent to a 23% probability).

Here’s where the HDAFU Tables become a guiding light.

Exploring the ‘IP’s by HOAO’ tab, we see the profit/loss curve around a HOAO quotient of 0.414, nosedive, and rest again at 1.175. This translates to away odds ranging from approximately 4.65 to 2.55.

It’s the bookmakers’ subtle manipulation of these odds, a few ticks below their fair value, that results in a misleading average.

It’s a lesson in vigilance for bettors basing their decisions on averages.

Two soccer players on the field fighting for possession; tearing on each other shirts. Representing the Spanish La Liga.

You’ve seen the doorway; the HDAFU Tables invite you into a mansion of insights. Beyond our initial showcase lie deeper layers, tailored strategies, and enlightening nuances. Every league is a trove of opportunities. Armed with Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables, you can dissect, strategize, and achieve.

Yet, on this complex journey, never lose sight of the principles of responsible gambling.