Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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The mastery of probability is the map that charts the course from uncertain odds to calculated success.
OVERCOMING WINTER OBSTACLES
Undersoil Heating
The Poland Ekstraklasa faces challenges during the winter due to harsh weather conditions, which may affect the schedule but not the performance.
Slippery pitch conditions are dangerous, for the players’ health and team results alike. Therefore, the league has implemented measures like undersoil heating to minimize the impact of the winter.
During the winter break from December to February, teams rest and recover, leading to more dynamic and competitive matches in the second half of the season.
THE EKSTRAKLASA’S ROLLERCOASTER RIDE
From Highs to Lows
Over the past five seasons, Poland’s Ekstraklasa has seen varying goal-scoring trends.
The average goals per game have fluctuated between 2.45 and 2.77, with a peak at 3 goals in the 2019-20 season.
There has been a slight trend towards more defensive play, with the average goals per game decreasing over recent seasons. The highest percentage of games with over 2.5 goals was 54% in the 2019-20 season.
Because of this fluctuation in goal-scoring, it must be noted that the Ekstraklasa may be difficult to anticipate.
CRACKING THE CODE
The Goal-Scoring Divide
This graph illustrates the goal-scoring performance of Legia Warsaw when playing at home versus away. Many teams, in most professional leagues, tend to have a notable difference in the number of goals in these two scenarios.
For instance, let’s consider matches with Over 1.5 goals. When Legia played at home, 77.36% of these games finished with Over 1.5 goals, compared to just 56.5% of away matches. When playing away, almost every second game finished with one or no goals, while at home, it’s not uncommon to see three goals or even more scored in Legia’s matches.
In terms of odds, a fair price for an Over 1.5 bet when Legia plays at home would be around 1.29 (2/7), whereas for an away game, around 1.77 (4/5) could be considered ‘fair’. With this knowledge, your chances of betting success will increase.
OVERCOMING COGNITIVE TRAPS
Fact-Based Approach
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average), choosing bets with odds above zero regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.
This match featured one Value Bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.35 odds. Under 4.5 and Under 5.5, as well as Over 0.5 and Over 1.5, were within the chosen probability range but below the Zero Odds.
A closer look reveals that, except for O0.5 and U1.5, all other bets were either Zero odds or below, with O3.5 even below the expected odds range. This suggests bettors were likely biased towards Over bets.
The chosen bet lost, unsurprisingly, since there was a 22.65% chance of losing, significantly above zero. Being a Value Bet doesn’t guarantee that every bet will win.
MASTER SPORTS BETTING WITH CLUSTER TABLES
From Novice to Pro
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This comprehensive course book takes you from novice to pro, teaching you the essential statistical concepts, odds calculation, and market dynamics for success.
With an emphasis on Over/Under goal betting, you’ll learn how to use our innovative Cluster Tables to find value bets and maximize profits.
This book is the key to unlocking your full potential in the sports betting world. Don’t wait, buy now and start making smarter bets.
