Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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Statistics paint a picture of the betting landscape, revealing opportunities that lie hidden in plain sight.
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTABLE
Unmatched Parity
The Eredivisie stands out among European football leagues for its competitive balance, with many teams vying for the title each year.
In the past 20 years, there have been 10 different champions, unlike some leagues where the same team dominates year after year.
This balance leads to closely contested and unpredictable matches, making it an exciting league to follow.
With a high average of 3.12 goals per game in the 2020-2021 season, and 2.86 in 2021-22, the Eredivisie is also known for its high-scoring matches.
THE ART OF ATTACKING FOOTBALL
A League Reborn
Eredivisie is famous for its attacking style of play and high-scoring games. The league’s history is full of memorable moments and individual achievements.
Over the past five seasons, goal-scoring has fluctuated, with a decline in recent years.
However, the current 2022-23 season has seen a resurgence, with an average of 3 goals per match, and 57% of games with over 2.5 goals scored. Home teams have scored 1.65 goals per match, and away teams have scored 1.34 goals per game.
With 79% of matches played, the trend is expected to continue.
BETTING WITH PRECISION
The Goal-Scoring Disparity
The graph visualises the goal-scoring performance of Dutch football team Ajax that differs significantly between their home and away matches.
When playing at home, 82.16% of Ajax’s matches end with over 1.5 goals, compared to only 65.1% of their away matches. Betters should take note of this difference, as it affects the total number of goals scored in a match.
This knowledge is crucial for anyone looking to make more precise predictions. Understanding the differences in goal-scoring performance between a team’s home and away matches will help to judge the prices (odds) better that bookmakers offer.
For example, an Over 2.5 bet when Ajax plays at home should be priced as short as 1.22 (2/9), while the same bet when Ajax plays away should be priced at around 1.5 (1/2) to be considered “fair”.
LOSS REDUCTION TACTICS
Odds Analysis
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.
This match had three Value Bets fitting our criteria, but we chose only two: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25 odds and Over 2.5 at 1.76 odds. The third bet, Over 3.5 goals at 2.88 odds, was 61% higher than expected and deemed anomalous. Further examination, using the Cluster Tables, revealed Alkmaar’s unstable home performance. In addition, in the past 10 seasons, 13 head-to-head matches with Alkmaar at home resulted in 7 Over 3.5 and 6 Under 3.5, making it a 50/50 bet, below our criteria.
The O1.5 bet won, while the O2.5 bet lost, illustrating that no bets have a 100% chance of winning.
TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR BETS
Calculate Fair Odds
Fed up with losing money on sports betting? It’s time to dive back into the world of learning and master the fundamentals of sports betting.
Our comprehensive course book, “Fundamentals of Sports Betting”, will teach you the ins and outs of odds calculation and introduce you to the revolutionary concept of Cluster Tables.
Remember, odds are simply prices for bets based on the probability of the outcome. Don’t let math intimidate you – transform your betting game and start winning consistently.
Secure your course book today and unlock the path to betting success.
