Portugal Primeira – HDAFU 1×2 Simulation Tables


Full-Time 1X2 HDAFU Betting Table (XLXS)
Valid for the 2023-24 season

Empower your Portugal Primeira betting journey with Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables.

These tables masterfully detail the intricacies of skewed odds, revealing ripple effects and uncovering valuable bet clusters, all tailored to guide informed wagering decisions.

A striking trend within the Primeira’s HDAFU tables is the ‘Backing the Draw P/L Curve’. The curve intriguingly meanders around zero up to odds of 3.7 for the entire season, but then plummets, reflecting losses surpassing 21,000 units.

This dramatic shift is evident in the split between the season’s two halves. In the initial half, there’s an inclination to neglect the draw, particularly for odds below 3.7. However, the second half sees punters misjudging the draw’s likelihood, a public perception bookies exploit by shaving odds.

Harness this intricate knowledge and transcend conventional Portugal Primeira betting insights with our precision-engineered HDAFU Tables.

Product Specification

1530 Game Analysis 2018-23, Excel .xlsx, 2.92 MB

  • Whole of Season and First and Second Halves of Season Analyses
    >> Go here to see why separate first-half and second-half season analyses are revealing!
  • Separate Inflection Point analyses based on:
    a) HO/AO Quotient (home odds divided by away odds)
    b) Odds (home, draw, away, favourite and underdog)
  • Whole of Season Analysis by Team (including five seasons break down)
  • Stake, Betting Exchange Commission and Odds Toggle features
Portugal Primera Calendar

Start Date: 11th August, 2023
1st Half Ends: 14th January, 2024

2nd Half starts: 21th January, 2024
Finish Date: 19th May, 2024

Through the analysis of historical data, the Portugal Primeira HDAFU Tables identify valuable bet clusters, expose bookmakers’ odds strategies, and demonstrate the repercussions of odds shifts, enabling bettors to spot rewarding opportunities.

Betting moves from a game of chance to a game of skill with the mastery of a good system.


Deciphering Inflection Points

Inflection Point graphs, visualised in HDAFU Tables (Home Draw Away Favourite Underdog P/L simulations), unravel the covert strategies bookmakers employ in setting odds.

They indicate pivotal moments where the trajectory of profit and loss alters.

This is a direct result of bookmakers manipulating odds to ensure their books balance.

They inflate the odds for one outcome, simultaneously deflating another as probabilities must tally to 100%.

Savvy Portugal Primeira punters can utilise this knowledge to spot and exploit underrated and overrated odds clusters, which differ from league to league.

P/L simulation curve from the HDAFU Table: Portugal Primeira Liga 2018-23 - Backing the draw 1st half by odds

P/L simulation curve from the HDAFU Table: Portugal Primeira Liga 2018-23 - Backing the favourite whole season by odds


Understanding Bookmaker Tactics

The odds set by bookmakers are far from random number crunching; they’re a calculated response to the dynamic betting market, cleverly designed to protect profits.

This odds-shifting ballet is unravelled in Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables’ P/L curves, exposing the subtle shifts that guide public sentiment.

Harnessing this insight, informed punters can pinpoint over- and under-priced odds clusters that are unique to each league.

With this knowledge, savvy bettors can play the bookmakers at their own game, steering the odds in their favour.


The HO/AO Quotient Unveiled

Within the intricate landscape of 1X2 betting, the HO/AO Quotient, standing for “Home Odds divided by Away Odds”, serves as an enlightening guide.

While 1X2 betting typically spans three potential outcomes, this quotient ingeniously trims it down to just two, moving from a three-dimensional interpretation of odds to a simplified two-dimensional one.

On its own, an odds value, such as for example 1.5, remains vague and may be the odds for the home team, or for the away team.

However, by harnessing the HO/AO quotient, punters can contextualise these odds, shedding light on the relative strengths of competing teams.

P/L simulation curve from the HDAFU Table: Portugal Primeira Liga 2018-23 - Backing the draw 1st half by HO-AO

Screenshot from the HDAFU Table: Portugal Primeira Liga - System Picker Tab - 2nd half - backing favourite by odds 2018-23 Screenshot from the HDAFU Table: Portugal Primeira Liga - System Picker Tab GRAPH - 2nd half - backing favourite by odds 2018-23
Click on the image above to toggle manually between slides


Decoding the System Picker Tab

The System Picker Tab offers a simulation of a five-year profit/loss trajectory based on select criteria: bet type (Home Win, Away Win, Draw, Favourite Win, Underdog Win), season segment (1st, 2nd, whole), analysis method (by Odds, by HO/AO Quotient), and specific cluster numbers.

In the Portugal Primeira Liga ‘Backing the Favourite’ appears profitable, especially when backing favourites with odds between 1.2 and 1.5.

However, two issues arise: firstly, these odds could pertain to either a home or away favourite; secondly, the profit trend over five years is deceptive.

Delving deeper, notable profits occurred only in the 2018-19 and 2022-23 seasons. The intervening years showed neither profit nor loss. It’s also essential to factor in the anomalous Covid season, marked by an uptick in underdog victories.

Such nuances demand careful consideration before integrating this into one’s betting strategy.


Team-Specific Insights

Dive into the Portugal Primeira’s HDAFU Tables, and a few compelling patterns emerge, especially around specific teams.

Over the past five seasons, backing the favourite with Guimaraes playing at home would have netted a profit of 1,064 units, while doing the same with Sporting Lisbon would have garnered an impressive 1,653 units when wagering consistently 100 units each match.

Intriguingly, Benfica, Guimaraes, and Sporting Lisbon have all shown profitability when laying the draw at home, returning 2,050, 2,761, and a whopping 5,703 units respectively.

It becomes evident that the ‘Backing by Teams’ tab is more than just a supplementary tool; it’s an essential asset for discerning punters wanting to harness the unique betting dynamics of individual teams.

Liga Portugal, Enzo Fernandez and another player fight for the ball

While our showcased insights provide a foundational understanding, the true depth and breadth of the HDAFU Tables remain to be explored. Delve beyond these preliminary glimpses to discover an expanse of strategies, nuances, and league-specific insights. Soccerwidow’s HDAFU Tables are your passport to a world of informed betting.

But as you journey through this complex landscape, always keep the tenets of responsible gambling close to your heart.