Our Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals in the Italy Serie A market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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When the market swings to its own rhythm, a bettor versed in statistics dances to the beat of profit.
TACTICAL SHIFT
More Goals, Less Defense
Italian football has long been known for its tactical approach, often prioritizing defensive stability over attacking creativity.
This had led to a lower-scoring league, with teams looking to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes rather than take risks in attack.
However, in recent years, there seems to be a shift towards more attacking football, teams adopting a more expansive style of play. The 2021-22 season saw an average of 2.87 goals per game, the highest in over a decade.
THE RETURN OF LOW-SCORING MATCHES ?
Fewer Goals, More Drama
The Italian Serie A has seen a rollercoaster of goal statistics in the past five years, with the Covid-19 pandemic having a significant impact.
The 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons saw a surge in away team goals, but this year’s average of 2.51 goals per match has returned to a more typical level.
It’s worth noting that the current season (2022-23) has so far a higher percentage of games ending with under 2.5 goals compared to the 2018-19 season.
The past few years have certainly been a wild ride for Serie A. It will be interesting to see how goal statistics evolve.
SERIE A’S SCORING ROLLERCOASTER
Favourite Folly
During the Covid pandemic, Italy’s Serie A league experienced a goal rise, but it now seems that it is returning to being more of a low-scoring league.
The profit/loss simulation graph analyses the returns on over/under 2.5 goal bets and shows that when the home team was the clear favourite (with an HO/AO quotient under 0.8), bookmakers struggled to make a profit.
Only matches with a higher HO/AO quotient would have resulted in a guaranteed loss of 7000 units for bettors placing bets on under 2.5 goals, which would have ensured a significant profit for bookmakers.
Understanding how bookmakers set their odds is critical for bettors. Therefore, before placing your next bet, take the time to analyse the odds.
NAVIGATING TRICKY BETTING WATERS
Trust & Verify
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.
This match featured two Value Bets fitting our criteria: Over 1.5 goals at 1.38 odds and Over 2.5 at 2.21 odds, both above the expected fair odds range.
Italy’s Serie A scoring is unpredictable, making it difficult for bookmakers to set odds, as demonstrated by the simulation of Over/Under 2.5 goals profit/losses. With an HO/AO quotient of 0.4822, these bets were within the rising profit curves, so we considered them wise choices.
Both bets won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised if they had lost, considering that the probabilities of winning were high but certainly not 100%.
THE SCIENCE OF FOOTBALL BETTING
Bet to Win
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