Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
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WHAT TO KNOW BEFORE BETTING
Low-scoring Myth
Contrary to popular belief, France’s Ligue 1 is currently not a low-scoring league, as statistics show that around 50% of games have had over 2.5 goals in recent years.
In the current 2022-23 season, the percentage of matches with over 2.5 goals has increased to 54%.
With careful analysis, bettors can find value in betting on both over and under goals in Ligue 1 matches, taking into account each team’s attacking and defensive strengths, and the overall trend of goal-scoring in the league.
LIGUE 1’S GOAL-SCORING REVOLUTION
COVID Impact?
The France Ligue 1 has become a more high-scoring league since the Covid-19 season in 2019-20. The average goals per game have increased from 2.52 in 2019-20 to 2.80 in 2021-22, with the current season averaging at 2.82.
This may be due to the Covid restrictions and since summer 2022 the return of full stadiums, as well as the financial impact of the pandemic on clubs’ ability to strengthen their defences and the collapse of the transfer market.
It is too early to predict the future goal averages, but you can probably expect more high-scoring matches in the France Ligue 1, until France Ligue 1 may return to “normal”.
A GRAPHICAL TREND ANALYSIS YOU CAN’T MISS
Goal! Goal! Goal!
You’ll probably love this graph that is displaying two trendlines that reveal patterns in the number of goals scored. The light blue line reflects actual data from five years of matches, while the dark blue line is the moving average of that data, and the red line is a polynomial trendline.
The interesting observation is that matches where the favourites play at home or away tend to result in more goals than the league’s average of 2.68 goals per game over five years. Specifically, matches where the favourites play at home (HO/AO quotient up to 0.4) and away (HO/AO quotient over 1.3) have an average higher than 2.68 goals per game, while other matches have a lower average.
With this insightful information, you can make more accurate predictions about the expected number of goals in a match.
CLUSTER TABLES: BETTING’S SECRET WEAPON
Informed Choices
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets using probabilities between 60% and 95% (the fourth column: Average). We choose bets with odds above zero, regardless of their position within the fair odds range.
This match had three Value Bets: Under 3.5 goals at 1.79 odds, Under 4.5 goals at 1.30, and Under 5.5 goals at 1.13. U3.5 was above the expected fair odds range, U5.5 within the range and higher than Zero odds, while U4.5 was exactly at Zero odds. We took all three bets but, knowing that Ligue 1 home favorite matches (HO/AO quotient up to 0.4) tended to be higher scoring, we only risked one unit spread across them.
All three bets won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised by a loss.
UNLOCKING THE CLUSTER TABLE’S POTENTIAL
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