EPL – 1×2 HDAFU Simulation Tables 2024-25

EPL: PROFITABILITY OF DRAW BETS

Inflection Point Graphs

The P/L simulation shows that over the last five seasons, consistently backing the draw resulted in significant losses as odds increased.

A ‘Back the Draw’ strategy would have been unsustainable for season-long betting, particularly with odds starting at 3.64.

This suggests that bookmakers may use in the EPL the draw odds to balance the probability of other outcomes, namely Home and Away wins.

If there is a long-term loss, it indicates that the odds offered were lower than the true odds (i.e., they may have been artificially decreased), thereby increasing the implied probability (implied probability = 1 divided by odds).

Despite many articles suggesting profitable ‘Back the Draw’ strategies, our analysis shows that they are probably not as viable as claimed.

However, a ‘Lay the Draw’ strategy may be profitable. Let’s explore further…

ADVANCED BETTING TACTICS

Perils and Potential

The graphs for the first and second halves highlight the importance of distinguishing between these periods in betting.

In the First Half graph, the profit peaks at odds of 3.64, reaching around 2,000, before declining sharply to nearly -12,000 (fixed staking of 100 units).

In contrast, the Second Half graph shows a flatter trend near break-even for much of the odds range, with losses gradually accumulating to about -10,000.

These patterns suggest that in the EPL a ‘Lay the Draw’ strategy in the first half might be viable.

Let’s delve deeper to explore this possibility.

EPL BETTING: A KEY BETTTING TOOL

HO/AO Quotient

The HO/AO quotient measures the relative strength of teams by dividing the home odds by the away odds.

Please observe the graph: Draw odds of 3.65 can occur at an HO/AO quotient of 0.580 as well as 2.074.

The former, HO/AO 0.580, starts with home team odds around 2.10, whereas the latter, HO/AO 2.074, corresponds to home team odds up to 4.15.

Here are a few examples of possible HDA odds combinations taken from the HDAFU tables:

• 4.00 (Home) – 3.65 (Draw) – 2.00 (Away)
• 2.98 (H) – 3.65 (D) – 2.44 (A)
• 2.11 (H) – 3.65 (D) – 3.63 (A)

Let’s explore further…

ADVANCED BETTING TACTICS

Leveraging HO/AO Quotients

Earlier, we identified that a ‘Lay the Draw’ strategy in the First Half of the season with odds between 3.65 and 5.0 might be viable. Let’s examine the HO/AO Inflection Point graph.

On the left side of the graph, the P/L Simulation curve for this observed odds range, starting from an HO/AO quotient of 0.198 until 0.382 (strong favourites playing at home), drops with a total loss of approximately 2,000 units.

Now, observe the right side of the graph: The curve drops much more steeply, from an HO/AO quotient of 1.761 to 4.696, resulting in a loss of nearly 4,000 units.

Can you see the importance of not only distinguishing between the first and second halves of the season but also considering the HO/AO quotient?

LEVERAGING INFLECTION POINTS FOR SMARTER BETTING

Beyond Basic Betting

After analyzing the Draw Inflection Point graphs in the HDAFU table, we have pinpointed a promising ‘Lay the Draw‘ strategy within an HO/AO quotient range of 1.761 to 4.696.

Your next step is now to navigate to the ‘System Picker Tab’.

Adjust the HOAO quotient slightly from 1.761–4.696 to 1.85–5.0. You will notice the losses in the P/L simulation increase from around 4,000 units to 5,394 units.

Ensure to review the bar chart covering the last five years to verify that these losses consistently occur within that specific cluster each year.

If projections hold true, you can expect to find approximately 28 matches that fit these criteria in the first half of the EPL season 2024-25, with a draw win rate of 15.11%—this translates to a lay hit rate of 84.89%.

Anticipate that the lay odds for the draw will hover around 4.06. If fortune is on your side, you might witness a winning streak of up to 17 rounds.

However, be cautious of the potential to incur two consecutive losses, which could significantly impact your bank, particularly if they occur early in the season.

THE BUMPY ROAD TO THE EXPECTED HITRATE

Tracking Betting Performance

At the time of writing this post, as of 30th October 2024, 13 matches in the EPL have met our criteria, with three resulting in draws — thus these three lays were lost.

Notably, two consecutive matches on 28th September and 29th September ended in draws, impacting our performance.

However, our strategy has bounced back, now having grossed to a profit of 8.65 units (fixed staking with a 100 units risk each bet) and a hit rate of 76.9%.

Given the EPL’s consistent statistical trends, we anticipate fewer matches will end in draws, which should bring us closer to our target hit rate of 84.89%.

Fingers crossed.

Remember, we’re grounded in statistics, and these numbers often pave the way to successful betting strategies. Understanding these figures can significantly influence your betting outcomes.

UNDERSTANDING AND EXPLOITING THE HDAFU TABLES

The Bettor’s Edge

We just explored developing a ‘Lay the Draw’ system betting strategy.

However, HDAFU Tables are not only valuable for Home, Draw, Away, Favourite, and Underdog system betting strategies; they also offer applications in:

Pre-match and In-play Betting Strategies:

Data from HDAFU Tables can assist in formulating both pre-match and in-play betting strategies by identifying odds or HO/AO clusters with historicaly mispriced odds.

Trading Opportunities:

Bettors can utilise the HDAFU tables to identify when bookmakers adjust odds and capitalise on these opportunities for trading bets by anticipating the most likely direction of odds development.

These mispriced odds typically correct quickly during play, enabling bettors to trade out safely.