Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing the Turkey Süper Lig’s market prices to true odds.
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When we master the intricacies of probabilities, we unlock the potential for consistent gains in the betting world.
THRIVING ON ADABTIBILITY
Tactical Diversity
The Süper Lig boasts a notable tactical diversity, with teams employing different formations and playing styles.
From possession-based to counter-attacking, teams are capable to adjust their tactics to suit various factors like the opposition, injuries, and player form.
This adaptability has a significant impact on the league’s competitiveness and unpredictability, with teams constantly changing their strategies to gain an advantage.
As a result, the Süper Lig provides an exhilarating experience for football fans, with no shortage of exciting matches and goals.
SURPRISING CONSISTENCY
Scoring Threshold
After expanding from 18 to 20 clubs in 2020, the Süper Lig has maintained a stable goal distribution, with an average of 2.7-2.9 goals per game.
Although there have been fluctuations in the total number of goals scored by teams each season, the consistency of the average goal number indicates that the goal distribution remains constant.
Furthermore, over the past five seasons, there has been a remarkable consistency of 70% of matches having Under 3.5 goals.
It will be intriguing to observe whether this consistency persists in the future.
FINDING THE OPTIMAL ODDS FOR PROFIT
Bet Smarter with Data!
Upon analysing the Süper Lig statistics over the last five years, it’s evident that betting on Over 2.5 goals would have resulted in a loss of approximately 6000 units.
However, betting on odds up to 1.69 (and never exceeding) would have yielded a profit of 4000 units.
The P/L Simulation graph included in our Cluster Tables provides intriguing insights into profitable betting strategies, with additional Profit/Loss curves available for Under 2.5 goals, by odds, and by HO/AO quotient.
These findings highlight the need for further investigation to better understand the dynamics of successful betting strategies in football.
BETTING BRILLIANCE: MASTERING PROBABILITIES
Smart Choices
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets with 60-95% probabilities (fourth column: Average) and odds above zero, regardless of their position within or outside the fair odds range.
This match had four betting candidates within our selected probability range: Over 0.5, Over 1.5, Under 3.5, and Under 4.5. The only candidate with odds slightly above the Zero odds was Over 1.5 goals with odds at 1.27.
The Süper Lig has a stable goal distribution, averaging 2.7-2.9 goals per game. So, even though the odds were small and close to Zero-odds, we still picked it. The other three bets were all below the Zero-odds, guaranteeing long-term losses.
The bet won, but we wouldn’t have been surprised if not, as U1.5 had a 17.55% probability, which isn’t much but certainly isn’t zero.
CRACKING THE ODDS CODE
Calculate to Win
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Our course book, Fundamentals of Sports Betting, teaches you essential skills for calculating odds and identifying market value.
Odds may seem simple, but they’re prices for bets based on probability. And prices may be too high or too low.
Utilise our Cluster Tables to make precise calculations and gain an edge over the competition. Transform your betting approach and start winning.
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