EPL Over/Under Goals Cluster Tables 2024-25

DRAMATIC CHANGE IN GOAL PATTERNS

EPL’s Scoring Surge

The 2023-24 English Premier League season broke the mould with its goal-scoring patterns, deviating significantly from historical norms.

Only 11 out of 380 matches ended in a goalless draw, a sharp decrease from the usual range of 21 to 30, marking a mere 2.89% compared to the expected 6% or even more.

Additionally, matches with just one goal also fell short of expectations, with only 42 occurrences against a typical count of over 60.

Contrastingly, the league saw a surge in high-scoring games:

In the 2023-24 season, a striking 43.68% of games exceeded the 3-goal mark, well above the usual 33%, painting a vivid picture of an unusual season.

PUNTERS SHIFT, BOOKIES CAPITALIZE

Odds Manipulation Ahead

This graph highlights the remarkable changes in goal distribution for the 2023-24 season (red graph line): fewer matches concluded with 0, 1, or 2 goals. Conversely, instances of matches finishing with 4, 5, and 6 goals significantly exceeded other season’s counts.

The probable cause of this shift was the noticeable extension in match durations, with many games lasting over 100 minutes. This increase was largely due to comprehensive adjustments in stoppage time for every interruption, including those from VAR reviews.

Adjustments to VAR protocols this season aim to reduce these extended periods.

Nevertheless, punters who traditionally rely on instinct rather than detailed analysis are likely now to lean towards placing Over ‘X’ Goals bets, providing bookmakers an opportunity to manipulate odds in their favour, capitalising on this trend.

CALCULATING ODDS WITH CLUSTER TABLES

Value Bets Uncovered

The Cluster Tables serve multiple purposes. They can be used to identify lay and back bets, focus on specific probability clusters, or lay at Half-Time (HT) to back at Full-Time (FT), among other strategies.

However, we continue exploring the theme that the 2023-24 season witnessed a notable shift in Over ‘X’ Goals numbers allowing the bookies to manipulate odds in their favour.

In this example, we examine the Chelsea vs. Man City match from the 18th August 2024, a first-round encounter.

We focus on probabilities between 60% and 95% (listed in the fourth column: Average) and flag bets with odds above zero, regardless of whether they fall within the fair odds range.

Selecting these criteria, the match offered two Value Bets: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.58, and Under 4.5 goals at 1.22; both exceeding the expected fair odds range.

Both bets were successful, as the match ended with a 0:2 scoreline.

LEVERAGING VALUE IN BETS

EPL Odds Tactics

Diving deeper into the goal-scoring trends of the 2023-24 season and the punters’ preference for higher scores, let’s examine the Brighton vs Man Utd match on 24th August 2024.

This match probably experienced a strong market demand for Over ‘X’ Goals bets, prompting bookmakers to lower these odds. To balance the books and encourage wagers on the other side, the Under 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 goals became compelling Value Bets.

Note: the match was on track for a 1:1 draw, but a dramatic goal in added time (95th minute) changed the outcome to 2:1.

This twist underscores the critical role of ‘playing it safe’ in sports betting, illustrating why opting for bets with higher probabilities can significantly enhance the effectiveness of your betting strategy.

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