Cluster Tables are a valuable resource for those looking to make strategic bets in the Over/Under goals market. They help bettors to calculate probabilities and Zero-Odds for goal bets, enabling value detection by comparing market prices to true odds.
Want to fully understand Cluster Tables and how to apply them? Get our Fundamentals of Sports Betting course book.
As we delve deeper into the world of statistics, we uncover a wellspring of knowledge that can transform our betting strategies.
WHERE GOALS ARE PLENTY
Attack and Score
With an average of 2.93 goals per game in the 2021-22 season, the Belgium Jupiler League is widely known for its high-scoring matches.
Interestingly, both home and away teams tend to score frequently, with an average of 1.55 goals per game at home and 1.38 goals per game away.
This suggests that the league is characterized by a high level of attacking play and goal-scoring opportunities, providing an exciting and entertaining experience for fans and bettors alike.
FROM 16 TO 18 AND BACK TO 16
Goal Count Steady
The Belgian Jupiler Pro League features 16 teams playing each other twice, followed by a playoff for the top eight. The bottom two teams are relegated, while the third-bottom team competes in a playoff with three teams from the Challenger Pro League.
Due to COVID-19, the league expanded to 18 teams for two seasons, but returned to 16 teams with more relegation places.
In the last 5 seasons, the matches per season varied, with 240 being standard, but reduced to 232 due to COVID-19, and increased to 306 for the following two seasons. However, the average goal count remained the same, between 2.82 and 2.96.
UNLOCKING THE WINNING FORMULA
Beware of Over 2.5 Goals
Are you tired of losing money on football bets? Well, we have some eye-opening news for you!
If you’ve been backing all Over 2.5 goals in the Belgian Jupiler League, you would have been down an impressive minus 7000 units over the last five years. Ouch! But don’t worry, we’ve got some good news for you too.
If you want to make a profit, you should focus on betting on matches where the teams are evenly matched or where the underdog is playing at home. In fact, you could have made a profit of around 6000 units by following this strategy.
Check out our Cluster Tables for more insights and visualisations of Profit/Loss curves.
DODGING DODGY BETS
Spot Suspicious Odds
In this example, we demonstrate selecting Value Bets using probabilities between 60% and 95% (the fourth column: Average). We choose bets with odds above zero, whether within or outside the fair odds range.
This match had two Value Bets: Over 1.5 goals at 1.21 odds and Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 odds. However, the Over 2.5 goals bet was well above the expected fair odds range, appearing suspicious. The odds may have been inflated due to the match’s low stakes, with Waregem facing likely relegation and Antwerp securing a play-off spot.
In this case, the Over 1.5 bet won, while the Over 2.5 didn’t. This outcome is typical since the Over 2.5 bet had a 22.5% chance of not winning, and 22.5% isn’t zero!
THE KEY TO SUCCESFUL SPORTS BETTING
Unlock Your Potential
Master the art of odds calculation and unlock the full potential of our Cluster Tables with our “Fundamentals of Sports Betting” course book.
Dive into the science of odds calculation, learn to accurately predict over/under goals for future games using historical data, and develop your own unique betting strategy.
Identify value bets like a seasoned pro and elevate your sports betting skills to new heights. Invest in your success today and transform your betting experience.
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